Srinagar- As political parties brace for a crucial day, counting of votes for the Budgam and Nagrota Assembly constituencies will take place on Thursday, with both seats drawing intense attention for very different political reasons.

The Election Commission of India has put in place elaborate arrangements for the smooth counting process held for the bypolls conducted on November 11. Officials said the counting will begin at 8 a.m. with postal ballots, followed by the opening of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) at 8:30 a.m.

Returning Officer for Budgam, Afroza Bano said that 15 rounds of counting will be held for the seat. However, the Returning Officer for the Nagrota constituency, Rajesh Kumar, declined to share the details, citing other engagements.

A total of 27 candidates are in the fray for both constituencies, previously held by the National Conference (Budgam) and the BJP (Nagrota).

Initial field reports suggest a tight contest in Budgam, where the seat is likely to be decided by a narrow margin between NC's Aga Mehmood and PDP's Aga Muntazir Mehdi. In Nagrota, BJP's Devyani is said to hold the advantage in the seat that fell vacant following the demise of her father, Devinder Singh Rana.

As per the Election Commission, Budgam recorded a turnout of 50.01%, while Nagrota registered 74.82%.

Budgam: First Big Test for NC After Ruhullah Rift

Beyond the numbers, the Budgam bypoll is being viewed as the first major litmus test for the one-year-old National Conference-led government, led by Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. Political observers say the contest carries symbolic weight far beyond the seat itself.

According to political observers, the Budgam verdict will reveal whether NC's grassroots cadre has remained intact despite the open rebellion by party MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi and the early signs of anti-incumbency against the new administration.

“Ruhullah may have a limited but influential vote bank. His absence from campaigning could impact NC's prospects in what has long been considered a traditional stronghold,” observers noted.

They said an NC win would indicate that its organisational base remains resilient despite internal dissent, while a setback would underline the depth of the rift between Ruhullah and the party leadership.

The rivalry has shaken the NC's usually steady equation in Budgam, tightening the race significantly. Many believe Ruhullah's loyalists have quietly shifted their support to PDP candidate Aga Muntazir Mehdi, given the overlap in their core Shia vote base.

While the verdict may shape the broader narrative around the NC–Ruhullah conflict, observers added that the outcome itself may not bring Ruhullah direct political gains-since an NC win or PDP win has limited personal impact for him.

What a PDP Win Would Mean

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