Gold has been treading water in recent weeks, holding near the $4,000-an-ounce mark but showing little conviction either way. However, precious metals analysts say beneath this surface calm, the market is simply gathering strength before its next big move-one that could carry prices toward an unprecedented $5,000 per ounce by 2026.

Despite the metal's inability to sustain gains above the symbolic $4,000 level, the underlying tone in the gold market remains strikingly optimistic.

Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, believes the current pause is less a sign of exhaustion and more of a healthy reset. In her latest monthly update, Manthey said she expects gold prices to average around $4,000 in the fourth quarter and rise to about $4,100 in the first quarter of 2026. Even after the recent pullback, she noted, gold remains up more than 50 per cent year-to-date.“Key supports, including central bank and haven demand, remain in place,” she said, adding that the correction should attract renewed buying from both retail and institutional investors.

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Her confidence stems from the same structural forces that have defined this rally: steady central-bank purchases, solid physical demand, and the expectation that lower interest rates will breathe fresh life into investment flows. In the third quarter alone, central banks bought an estimated 220 tonnes of gold-a 28 per cent jump from the previous quarter and six per cent above the five-year average. Many monetary authorities are quietly re-weighting their reserves toward gold, with South Korea's central bank reportedly considering its first addition since 2013 and Serbia planning to double its reserves to 100 tonnes by 2030.

Investment flows have also turned supportive. Between July and September, global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their holdings increase by 222 tonnes - the fastest quarterly pace in years, according to data from the World Gold Council. Although there have been some withdrawals since, Manthey expects inflows to resume as the Federal Reserve continues cutting rates.

Fed Chair Powell has said a further rate cut in December is not a foregone decision and acknowledged voices calling for the Fed to“at least wait a cycle” before reducing rates further.

Gold's bullish outlook finds growing agreement across major financial institutions. HSBC has forecast that gold could touch $5,000 an ounce in 2026, citing persistent geopolitical tensions, surging government debt, and deepening demand from central banks and private investors.

The bank expects average prices of around $4,600 in 2026, with a possible spike to $5,000 if the global economy weakens or political risk escalates. Bank of America shares a similar view, projecting an average of $4,400 and a high of $5,000 next year, supported by a forecasted 14 per cent jump in investment demand. Société Générale has gone even further, calling $5,000“increasingly inevitable” as ETF inflows strengthen and reserve managers continue diversifying away from the US dollar.

However, not every analyst is ready to declare that the rally is back on track. In a note sent to Khaleej Times, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, argues that gold's uptrend has technically broken down. He points to stubbornly strong Treasury yields, a firm dollar and a Federal Reserve that remains hesitant to commit to a December rate cut.“Attempts by sellers to push the price below $3,900 are meeting with strong buying interest,” he said,“but the rally has clearly lost momentum. The market may need a deeper shakeout before the next upward wave."

Even the skeptics concede that gold's structural appeal remains intact. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 71 per cent probability of a rate cut next month, and most traders expect further easing through the first half of 2026. Lower real interest rates would directly support gold, which thrives when the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines. Combined with mounting fiscal pressures - including concerns over ballooning public debt if US tariff repayments are mandated - the environment appears ripe for renewed safe-haven demand.

The confluence of these forces makes it difficult to dismiss gold's long-term potential. Each pullback seems to be met with solid buying, suggesting that institutional investors and central banks alike view any weakness as an opportunity rather than a warning. Even short-term corrections, analysts note, tend to reinforce the market's broader resilience.

Analysts insist that prices may continue to consolidate through the final weeks of the year, but the groundwork for a fresh surge appears firmly in place. With inflation fears simmering, monetary policy likely to ease further, and global tensions showing no sign of abating, the world's oldest safe haven is again positioning itself as a hedge against the uncertainties of the modern economy, they contend.

Bullion market watchers believe gold's calm may prove deceptive. They argue that beneath its steady surface, powerful currents are forming - and if the consensus among banks such as HSBC, ING, and Bank of America proves right, those currents could soon carry the metal into record-breaking territory. "The market may be catching its breath, but the next leap could be its biggest yet," A Dubai-based analyst said.

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