Latest stories

Prime Minister Takaichi's priorities need to be inflation and communication

Elections in MAGA states like Georgia show US change coming fast

India can't keep balancing between US and Russia

Some of Lai's statements certainly played on Chinese fears. For instance, he has called himself a“pragmatic Taiwan independence worker.” In 2023 he said one of his goals was to see a Taiwan president“enter the White House.”

However,“pragmatic” actually suggests caution – and Lai walking into the White House is no more foreseeable now than when he started his presidency. The Chinese government, nevertheless, is following through with its pre-judgment of Lai as a radical revisionist regardless of his actual policies.

Second, focusing blame on Lai overlooks other factors that contribute to China's aggressive posture. China's military capabilities relative to those of both Taiwan and the United States have grown in recent years. Successfully using military force to forcibly annex Taiwan looks increasingly feasible for the PRC.

The Chinese government continually pushes the narrative, internally as well as externally, that America is on a permanent trajectory of decline.

While the US government still contains many pro-Taiwan officials, the US government's commitment to help defend Taiwan has weakened. Previous US President Joe Biden four times publicly said he would dispatch US forces to intervene in a cross-Strait war. Current President Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge of“no new wars.” He has usually refused to say whether he would send the US military to defend Taiwan, but during one interview he said he would respond to a Chinese invasion by raising tariffs on Chinese exports.

China's military buildup and the perception of a wavering US commitment have incentivized China to rely more heavily on military intimidation in its cross-Strait strategy because the threat of military attack has become more credible. Lai is a convenient justification but not necessarily the driver of Beijing's belligerence.

The second classic argument that Goldstein makes is that defending Taiwan is not in America's interest.“Taiwan does not represent a vital US national security interest,” he writes.“It is not a treaty ally, nor are the various geostrategic or economic rationales to defend Taiwan enough to risk a potentially catastrophic great power war.”

The implicit argument that another country is not worth defending if it is not a treaty ally is demonstrably false. The US has sent troops and/or major military assistance to the Soviet Union (during World War II), South Vietnam, South Korea, Haiti, Somalia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and Ukraine to assist non-allies.

One could question whether some of these cases represented sound policy, but they prove the point that in practice, strategic interventions by a superpower are not limited to defending allies.

Goldstein's assertion that the risk of a war with China trumps“the various geostrategic or economic rationales to defend Taiwan” requires further parsing.

How large are the respective risks and opportunities? If the economic and strategic upside to the US of protecting Taiwan is very low and the risk of war with China is very high, Goldstein is right. But what if the advantages of helping Taiwan avoid forcible annexation are very large, and deterrence of China is practicable, so that the risk of war is low?

In fact, the economic and security rationales for defending Taiwan are robust. Taiwan is the world's 16^th largest economy and the manufacturing base of most of the world's supply of semiconductors. It is certainly to the great advantage of the US and other partner countries that Taiwan is ruled by a government that respects international law and liberal norms.

Island chain strategy. Map: ResearchGate

Strategically, Taiwan is the anchor of the First Island Chain. It is the frontline state in China's campaign of territorial expansion, which also includes the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea, parts of India and Bhutan and by some indications the Ryukyu Islands.

Capturing Taiwan would give China its richest and best-developed province, unhindered access to the Pacific Ocean and a commanding position astride key sea lanes that sustain the Japanese and South Korean economies.

In addition to the economic and strategic rationales for defending Taiwan that Goldstein mentions, there is also a political rationale. As a previously authoritarian country that transitioned to a multiparty liberal democracy, Taiwan exemplifies the political liberalization that America has traditionally promoted worldwide.