(MENAFN- The Rio Times) This week's Central Bank Focus report delivers a sobering snapshot of Brazil's economic crossroads. Inflation, while inching down, remains stubbornly above target-now projected at 4.55 percent for 2025, still breaching the 4.5 percent ceiling.

The Selic interest rate, held at 15 percent, is expected to stay there through year-end, with only gradual cuts to 12.25 percent by 2026.

The real is forecast to weaken slightly, ending 2025 at 5.41 per dollar and 5.50 by 2026. Growth, meanwhile, is stagnating: 2.16 percent this year, slowing to 1.78 percent in 2026.

The numbers tell a clear story. Brazil's economy is caught between inflationary pressures and the Central Bank 's determination to crush them-no matter the cost. High rates are working, but slowly.

The real's stability is fragile, and growth is suffering. The report leaves no room for optimism: without deeper fiscal discipline, the cycle of high prices, weak investment, and sluggish expansion will persist.



For outsiders, the takeaway is blunt. Brazil 's economic policy is a high-stakes gamble: endure the pain of tight money now, or risk even greater instability later.

The Central Bank's resolve is the only anchor in a sea of uncertainty. Whether it holds depends on whether the country finally embraces the reforms it has long avoided.

The Focus report doesn't sugarcoat it-this is the price of past mistakes, and the bill is coming due.

MENAFN04112025007421016031ID1110292227