(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) Arabian Post Staff -Dubai

Gold regained momentum as the US dollar's slide and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy helped lift the metal above the psychologically important $4,000-per-ounce mark. Spot gold rose around 0.7 % to $4,009.39 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery edged up to $4,022.10. At the same time, broader factors have introduced both bullish and cautionary signals to the market.

Investor interest is rekindled by the weaker dollar, which makes gold relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, and by widespread anticipation that the Fed will adopt a more dovish stance. The dollar index fell roughly 0.1 % as markets weighed the possibility of rate cuts. At the same time, certain easing in trade-tensions between the US and China has slightly reduced gold's role as a safe-haven asset. The confluence of these opposing forces has begun to shape a more nuanced outlook for the metal.

Analysts say that the rebound above $4,000 should not be taken as a strong bullish assurance yet. While the technical bounce signals renewed buying interest, momentum must be supported by fundamentals. One market commentator observed that“buyers who were waiting on the sidelines for gold are now being tempted into taking positions at these price levels. Also, we are seeing a bit of softness from the dollar, which is giving gold a reprieve”.

The wider context shows that gold has already surged markedly this year, up more than 50 % in 2025, and reached a record high near $4,381.21 in mid-October. The rally has been fuelled by a combination of geopolitical anxiety, central-bank buying and expectations of monetary easing. But the pull-back seen earlier this week underscores that investor discipline and macro clarity are still required for any sustained rise.

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Emerging trends in the market reveal more structural undercurrents. Research from noted finance academics suggests that gold's role is evolving: it may increasingly function as a high-quality liquid asset, competing with traditional safe-havens and benefiting from de-dollarisation in global reserves. But at the same time, some firms argue the rally may be overstretched: one analysis warned that with gold already up so sharply this year, its next move could be a“mini-bust,” with projections that prices might fall toward $3,500 by 2026 if support from central-bank demand weakens.

Forecasts for 2026 have also shifted. A poll of analysts and traders indicates a median expectation that average gold prices will exceed $4,000 per ounce next year – a milestone in itself – although forecasts vary widely, reflecting both optimism and caution. On the upside, institutions such as Goldman Sachs remain bullish, pointing to potential further gains on the back of monetary accommodation and geopolitical risk. On the downside, if trade tensions ease and inflation moderates, some believe gold could correct.

The interplay between stimulus expectations and dollar dynamics remains crucial. A softer dollar supports gold, but if authorities signal confidence in economic recovery and maintain higher interest rates, gold's appeal could diminish because it offers no yield. Additionally, the safe-haven narrative is under pressure as expectations of improved US-China relations gain traction, which may lower investors' impetus to hold gold purely for risk hedging.

Strength in demand from global central banks has supported prices thus far, but market watchers caution that this may face constraints as gold holdings rise and incremental purchases become harder. For now, the up-move above $4,000 may signal a tentative buying opportunity for traders who believe a rate-cut cycle is on the horizon. For longer-term investors though, vigilance remains essential, as valuations are elevated and market dynamics could shift rapidly.

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