(MENAFN- Khaleej Times)

Villa prices in Dubai have nearly tripled since the pandemic, with some prime communities witnessing values quadruple, according to the latest Q3 2025 Dubai Real Estate Review by consultancy ValuStrat. The city's residential market, while still growing, is showing signs of moderation as capital gains ease, rents stabilise, and ready home sales decline.

“Since the pandemic, villa values have generally tripled, and in some prime communities, even quadrupled,” said Haider Tuaima, Managing Director and Head of Real Estate Research at ValuStrat.“Villas continue to outperform apartments by a significant margin, supported by limited supply in highly sought-after locations.”

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The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for Dubai's residential market rose 21.3 per cent year-on-year in Q3 2025, down from 23.9 per cent in Q2 and 28.9 per cent in Q3 2024. On a quarterly basis, the index increased 4.4 per cent to 230.6 points, benchmarked to a base of 100 in Q1 2021.

Villas led the charge, with their VPI reaching 307.5 points - up 26.4 per cent annually and 5.5 per cent quarterly. In contrast, apartment values rose 16.1 per cent year-on-year and 3.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, reaching 180.4 points. The strongest villa price growth was seen in Jumeirah Islands and Palm Jumeirah, both up 7.8 per cent in the quarter.

Despite the price surge, the volume of ready home sales fell 9.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 3.4 per cent year-on-year to 12,451 transactions. The average ticket size for these homes dropped 2.8 per cent from the previous quarter to Dh2.6 million, though still 13.6 per cent higher than a year ago.“This trend was largely anticipated, reflecting the impact of rising prices and an increasingly expensive market,” Tuaima noted.

Off-plan sales, however, surged to record highs. Over 44,890 off-plan transactions were registered in Q3, up 25.6 per cent from Q2 and 36.2 per cent from the same period last year. These accounted for 77 per cent of all residential transactions, with an average ticket size of Dh2.3 million and a total investment value of Dh108 billion.

Rental values, meanwhile, have stabilised. The VPI for residential rents rose 4.7 per cent annually but remained flat quarter-on-quarter at 201.6 points. Villa rents averaged Dh429,500 per year, up 3.5 per cent annually, while apartment rents averaged Dh96,300, up 5.6 per cent.

“Villa rents, having more than doubled since the pandemic, are nearing affordability ceilings, while apartments, representing 80 per cent of the market, have been catching up over the past two years,” Tuaima said.

So far in 2025, 24,000 new homes have been delivered, with the year-end total expected to exceed 27,000 units. The pipeline remains strong, with 158,854 apartments and 40,173 villas under construction and scheduled for handover by 2029.

In the prime segment - defined as properties priced above Dh2,000 per sq ft - values rose 22.4 per cent year-on-year and 4.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter. The VPI for prime villas reached 321.6 points, marking a 29.2 per cent annual gain. Palm Jumeirah and Emirates Hills have seen values triple since 2021, while Jumeirah Islands has recorded a fourfold increase.

Apartment prices in this segment grew more modestly, up 16.2 per cent annually and 3.3 per cent quarterly, reaching 193.6 points.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be entering a more mature phase.“Residential capital growth momentum has been easing over the past 12 months,” Tuaima observed.“However, the fundamentals remain strong, particularly in the villa segment, where supply constraints continue to support values.”

With Dubai's population surpassing 4 million and the economy projected to grow 4.9 per cent in 2025, the city's real estate market remains buoyant. Yet, as affordability becomes a growing concern, especially in the villa segment, the balance between supply, demand, and pricing will be critical in shaping the next phase of the property cycle.

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