(MENAFN) The World Trade Organization (WTO) has sharply revised its 2025 global trade growth forecast upward to 2.4%, a notable increase from its previous estimate of 0.9% in August. However, the organization cautioned that momentum may not last, cutting its 2026 forecast to 0.5%, down from 1.8%, according to its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released Tuesday.

The WTO attributed the stronger-than-anticipated trade performance in the first half of 2025 to several key drivers, including a global boom in artificial intelligence (AI)-related goods, a spike in North American imports ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, and solid trade volumes across other regions.

“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,” the report stated.

While this year’s projected 2.4% growth signals resilience, it still trails behind the 2.8% expansion seen in 2024.

The downgrade for 2026 reflects the expected delayed impact of new trade barriers. The WTO noted that tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, applied at varying rates across countries and sectors, are likely to weigh more heavily on trade flows starting next year.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the factors helping to cushion global trade from severe disruption: “Countries' measured response to tariff changes, the growth potential of artificial intelligence and increased trade, particularly among developing countries, have helped mitigate trade disruptions.”

She credited the current trade stability to the global rules-based system: “Trade resilience in 2025 is thanks in no small part to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system.”

However, Okonjo-Iweala urged governments not to become complacent: “Yet complacency is not an option. Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere.”

The WTO’s latest projections come amid mounting geopolitical tensions and shifting trade alliances that continue to shape the global economic landscape.

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