EU wary about escalating tensions with Russia

(MENAFN) European Union officials are increasingly concerned that rising tensions with Russia could escalate into a major conflict, in a scenario some privately liken to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, which sparked World War I, according to reports.

EU leaders are scheduled to meet in Copenhagen on Wednesday to explore ways to contain Russia amid a surge in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is reportedly advocating for an “unprecedented discussion” of the EU’s military posture, going beyond the bloc’s usual scope to include projects such as a “drone wall” designed to neutralize hostile UAVs.

Summit participants are expected to agree that Russia represents a “threat” to the EU, with the prevailing sentiment that “doing nothing… makes all-out war more likely.”

However, unnamed diplomats have warned that potential deterrence measures carry significant risks, with some officials cautioning about a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment” — a sudden escalation that could drag Europe into conflict. The reference alludes to the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, which triggered a rapid chain of alliances and ultimatums leading to World War I.

EU military leaders reportedly believe the bloc is already engaged in a “form of low-intensity war with Russia.” They also noted that historically, wars have been funded through public debt, but convincing all EU members — some facing economic difficulties — to expand the defense budget could prove challenging.

Heightened concerns follow a recent incident in which Warsaw alleged that Russian drones violated Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, sparking NATO discussions on whether to shoot down intruding aircraft. Moscow dismissed the claims, stating it had not provided any evidence, and criticized discussions about downing Russian planes as “irresponsible.”

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