India's Rice Exports On Track For New Record Despite Floods: IGC Report

(MENAFN- Live Mint) NEW DELHI: India, the world's leading rice exporter, is poised to ship a record amount of grain this season despite severe flooding that damaged crops in the key farming state of Punjab.

The International Grains Council (IGC) has forecast that India will export a record 23.4 million tonnes of rice during the 2025-26 season, a 2% increase from the previous season. This surge will be fuelled by strong demand from African nations and a recent rebound in shipments to markets in Pacific Asia like the Philippines and Malaysia. According to the IGC, India will account for more than a third of the global rice trade, which is forecast to reach a record 59.9 million tonnes.

India exported 19.86 million tonnes of rice in FY25, surpassing 16.35 million tonnes in FY24.

The IGC presented its report on 22 September, which was published on the website of the World Trade Organization (WTO) The following day. The submission was made for the 113th meeting of the WTO Committee on Agriculture, scheduled for 25–26 September.

The projection comes even as floods have impacted Punjab and Haryana, which together account for 75% of the country's long-grain basmati rice output. However, industry experts say India's diversified rice belt across eastern and southern states is cushioning the overall output.

“The losses in Punjab are a concern, but India's production base is large and spread out, which helps offset regional shocks,” said Vijay Setia, director, Chaman Lal Setia Exports, and the former president of All India Rice Exporters Association (Airea).

Also Read | Amid floods and crop losses, govt promises price stability till mid-2026

To make up for any shortfalls, basmati rice exporters are are likely to to source more from states like Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh , Mint had reported earlier. Airea has projected India's basmati rice exports at 6.5 million tonnes in the current fiscal year, up from 6.06 million tonnes in FY25.

According to the Indian agriculture ministry, paddy sowing has increased to 43.85 million hectares this kharif season, up from 43 million last year.

The IGC noted that higher carry-in stocks and a marginal downgrade in consumption have boosted global supplies, with carryover inventories pegged at an all-time high of 187 million tonnes. This ensures that trade flows remain stable, offering India the opportunity to consolidate its dominance in rice exports.

India's edge

India's competitive edge lies in its ability to cater to multiple markets, according to industry experts. The country supplies premium basmati rice to West Asia and Europe while providing more affordable non-basmati rice, particularly the parboiled variety, to buyers across Africa.

Exporters believe that despite weather shocks and policy interventions aimed at safeguarding domestic food security, India's exports will remain buoyant.

The IGC report also highlighted strong trends across other crops, with world wheat output forecast at a record 819 million tonnes, and volumes forecast to rebound by 5% to 206.9 million tonnes. Maize production is projected at 1,297 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year, while global soybean imports are expected to rise 2% to 184.6 million tonnes, driven by firmer Chinese demand.

Also Read | Why China's exports have stayed resilient in the face of US tariffs

For India, however, rice remains the most strategically important export commodity in the agriculture sector. Government policy continues to balance domestic price stability with export earnings, with analysts stressing that the IGC's numbers reaffirm India's central role in global food security. The country's ability to withstand regional weather shocks and still meet international demand underscores its indispensability in global trade.

India at WTO

In a separate development, India has stepped up its push for greater transparency in global trade, challenging the US, Australia, Japan and several other nations at the WTO over farm subsidies, Mint reported earlier.

Also Read | India just tabled a major challenge to the world's biggest economies at the WTO

India has questioned several US initiatives, including the $16 billion Supplemental Disaster Relief Program and the National Farm Security Action Plan, a WTO document on 17 September showed. The move follows the US rejecting India's objections in a recent trade dispute, signalling a new, more assertive strategy by New Delhi to ensure that scrutiny of farm policies is a two-way street.

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