RVNL Shares: SEBI Analyst Sees Consolidation Ahead Despite Strong Order Wins

Shares of Rail Vikas Nigam (RVNL) pared early gains on Tuesday after the company announced it had emerged as the lowest bidder (L1) for a Southern Railway project worth ₹145.35 crore. 

The project aims to strengthen traction power systems to support Indian Railways' 3000 MT loading target.

The contract covers the design, supply, erection, testing, and commissioning of traction substations with Scott-connected power quality compensating equipment, switching posts, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) integration, and automatic fault locators (AFL). 

The work will be executed in the Jolarpettai Junction–Salem Junction section of the Salem division over a period of 540 days.

Order Flow 

SEBI-registered analyst Varunkumar Patel noted that while the order size is relatively modest compared with RVNL's market capitalization of more than ₹70,000 crore, it reflects strong momentum in contract wins and adds visibility to its execution pipeline. 

He noted that RVNL secured a ₹169 crore order from West Central Railway last week, pointing to the company's regular order inflows.

Patel said the project falls under the government's plan for the complete electrification of railways, which is keeping PSU rail infrastructure stocks, such as RVNL, in the limelight with the continued policy push.

Fundamental View

Despite steady order wins, Patel cautioned that RVNL trades at elevated valuations, with a price-to-earnings multiple near 62. 

He pointed to a 40% year-on-year drop in first-quarter (Q1) FY26 profit, raising concerns about margins and execution risks. Any hiccups in project delivery or broader PSU sentiment shifts could weigh on the stock.

Technical View

RVNL's stock was last seen around ₹362, broadly in line with its volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of ₹361–362. Patel identified resistance near ₹380–382, which, if crossed, could open the way toward ₹405, while support remains strong around ₹340. 

He noted that RVNL's shares are still recovering from a decline from highs of ₹535, with trading action indicating a period of consolidation. 

Key momentum signals like the Relative Strength Index holding near 64 and a buy signal on the MACD chart suggest the stock still carries a mildly positive undertone.

Trading Call

According to Patel, RVNL remains in a consolidation phase but maintains a positive medium-term outlook if order flow sustains alongside government infrastructure spending. 

A clean breakout above ₹380 with volume would be key to confirming renewed momentum.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was 'bearish' amid 'normal' message volume.

RVNL's stock has declined 16.3% so far in 2025.

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