Chinese Biotech Takes Aim At Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk With New GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs As Patent Clocks Tick

Innovent Biologics is positioning itself for growth in China's obesity drug market, where competition is expected to intensify once Novo Nordisk's semaglutide patent expires in 2026 and local firms such as CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and Hangzhou Jiuyuan Genetic Biopharmaceutical launch their own GLP-1 products. 

Analysts at Macquarie Capital said mazdutide, Innovent's therapy, could become a blockbuster in China, though its ability to withstand future generic rivals remains uncertain, according to a Reuters report. 

The company launched its once-weekly GLP-1 injection Xinermei in July, entering the market after Novo's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Mounjaro. Licensed from Lilly in 2019, Xinermei, also known as mazdutide, is priced at 2,920 yuan ($411) per month for the highest dosage, compared with about $400 for Wegovy and $900 for Mounjaro.

Morningstar analysts forecast Xinermei could deliver more than 600 million yuan ($84.4 million) in revenue this year and peak at 3.5 billion yuan by 2029, or roughly 20% of Innovent's sales. By contrast, Wegovy sales in China are projected to reach 2.2 billion Danish crowns ($346 million) in 2025, with growth expected into 2026 before tapering as generics become available.

CFO Rachel You said Innovent is promoting weight management awareness while highlighting Xinermei's ability to reduce liver fat, a feature that has already drawn patient interest at Peking University People's Hospital. 

The drug has also secured approval in China for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, thereby extending its market potential.

Distribution is widening across retail pharmacies, online platforms, private clinics, and public hospitals, with listings visible on JD. Danske Bank economist Allan von Mehren noted that Chinese companies may have an advantage in understanding local branding and consumers.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was 'bearish' for Lilly with 'low' message volume, while Novo drew 'bullish' sentiment alongside 'high' message activity.

While Novo Nordisk's stock has declined 28% so far in 2025, Eli Lilly's stock has fallen 1.6% over the same period.

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