Colombian Peso's Rally Pauses As Stocks Slip On Fed Caution
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Bloomberg and local exchange data show the peso hovered at 3,893 COP per USD on September 19, 2025. Traders scaled back long positions after the Federal Reserve's 25 basis-point cut, fearing a slower easing cycle ahead.
The DXY dollar index climbed to 97.39 overnight, keeping the peso on the back foot. The COLCAP index fell 0.60% to 1,823.31 points, with volume dipping 12% from Wednesday.
Bancolombia Pf shares led gains at 0.88%, while Banco Davivienda Pf slid 3.31%. Mineros SA logged a 3.06% decline as metals prices eased. Promigas and Grupo Aval also underperformed.
Technical indicators on the daily charts reflect mixed momentum. The 20-day Bollinger Bands compress around 3,850–3,940, signaling low volatility. The 50-day EMA at 3,908 acted as resistance, and the 100-day SMA near 3,950 capped upside.
The MACD line sits below its signal, hinting at bearish pressure. Daily RSI at 46 suggests modestly oversold conditions, leaving room for rebounds or further drops. The yellow global liquidity index line remains subdued, aligning with tightening global funding.
On the four-hour chart, the peso found support at 3,884 before bouncing to near 3,895. MACD crossed above its signal line, suggesting short-term dollar weakness.
A break above the 9-period EMA at 3,900 could spur further peso gains. Key intra-day resistance lies at 3,920, with support at 3,875.
Energy and finance stocks led COLCAP's declines amid profit-taking. Ecopetrol fell 1.2% after oil slipped 0.8% on global demand concerns.
Bancolombia SA bucked the trend with a 2.5% rise, driven by strong trading volumes. ETF flows favored local sovereign debt, with COLO ETF seeing $12 million of inflows.
The central bank's 9.25% benchmark rate remains among the highest in Latin America. Elevated real rates continue to attract carry-trade interest despite global liquidity tightening.
Inflation stood at 5.1% in August, above the 2–4% target, keeping policymakers cautious. Colombia's markets took direction from U.S. policy moves and commodity swings. The peso's September gain of 1.8% trails only a few regional peers.
COLCAP's 40% year-on-year surge still ranks among the world's top index performances. Yet investors brace for choppy trade as Fed guidance and local inflation shape near-term trends.
The DXY dollar index climbed to 97.39 overnight, keeping the peso on the back foot. The COLCAP index fell 0.60% to 1,823.31 points, with volume dipping 12% from Wednesday.
Bancolombia Pf shares led gains at 0.88%, while Banco Davivienda Pf slid 3.31%. Mineros SA logged a 3.06% decline as metals prices eased. Promigas and Grupo Aval also underperformed.
Technical indicators on the daily charts reflect mixed momentum. The 20-day Bollinger Bands compress around 3,850–3,940, signaling low volatility. The 50-day EMA at 3,908 acted as resistance, and the 100-day SMA near 3,950 capped upside.
The MACD line sits below its signal, hinting at bearish pressure. Daily RSI at 46 suggests modestly oversold conditions, leaving room for rebounds or further drops. The yellow global liquidity index line remains subdued, aligning with tightening global funding.
On the four-hour chart, the peso found support at 3,884 before bouncing to near 3,895. MACD crossed above its signal line, suggesting short-term dollar weakness.
A break above the 9-period EMA at 3,900 could spur further peso gains. Key intra-day resistance lies at 3,920, with support at 3,875.
Energy and finance stocks led COLCAP's declines amid profit-taking. Ecopetrol fell 1.2% after oil slipped 0.8% on global demand concerns.
Bancolombia SA bucked the trend with a 2.5% rise, driven by strong trading volumes. ETF flows favored local sovereign debt, with COLO ETF seeing $12 million of inflows.
The central bank's 9.25% benchmark rate remains among the highest in Latin America. Elevated real rates continue to attract carry-trade interest despite global liquidity tightening.
Inflation stood at 5.1% in August, above the 2–4% target, keeping policymakers cautious. Colombia's markets took direction from U.S. policy moves and commodity swings. The peso's September gain of 1.8% trails only a few regional peers.
COLCAP's 40% year-on-year surge still ranks among the world's top index performances. Yet investors brace for choppy trade as Fed guidance and local inflation shape near-term trends.
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