Banking Expert Predicts No Exchange Rate 'Surprises' In Late Sept 2025

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) The relevant statement was made by Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank Taras Liesovyi in a commentary to Ukrinform.

According to the expert, no 'surprises' are expected to occur on the foreign exchange market at the end of September 2025. Exchange rate trends will remain unchanged.

“On the one hand, the U.S. dollar exchange rate will be within UAH 41.2-41.5, and the euro will not 'catch' at UAH 49. On the other hand, the regulator will remain active, and in case of urgent need, it will contribute to establishing a balance between demand and supply through foreign exchange interventions. Hence, there are no risks of significant fluctuations,” Liesovyi told.

At the same time, in his words, the end of September is a certain benchmark for October and November. Thus, it will be extremely important to maintain 'positivity' in the economy in the broadest sense.

“Of course, wartime factors also have a significant impact on society and business, primarily on their moral and psychological state. After all, uncertainty and risks of further escalation can become elements of 'unbearable conditions' that will provoke individuals to make emotional decisions, and, for the foreign exchange market, such decisions are unfounded excitement. Therefore, war as a reality can also situationally put pressure on exchange rates: increased demand almost always leads to exchange rate growth,” Liesovyi explained.

On September 22-28, 2025, according to the expert's forecast, the main characteristics of the foreign exchange market will be as follows:

· The foreign exchange corridors of UAH 41.2-41.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 47.5-49 for the euro (on the interbank market); UAH 41.2-41.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 47.5-49.5 for the euro (on the cash market).

· The daily exchange rate fluctuations will go up to UAH 0.05-0.15 (on the interbank market), UAH 0.1-0.2 (commercial banks), and UAH 0.3 (exchange offices).

· The difference between the buying/selling rates will go up to UAH 0.15 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.2 for the euro (on the interbank market); UAH 0.5-0.6 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.8-1 for the euro (commercial banks); and UAH 0.6-1 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 1-1.3 for the euro (exchange offices).

· The difference in buying rates on the cash market will be UAH 0.2-0.3 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the euro (commercial banks); and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.5-0.7 for the euro (exchange offices).

· The difference in selling rates on the cash market will be UAH 0.1-0.2 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.2-0.3 for the euro (commercial banks); and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the U.S. dollar and UAH 0.5 for the euro (exchange offices).

The potential weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% from the starting Monday rate.

“According to our estimates, next week, the currency market will 'live' in summer conditions: the main fluctuations of the U.S. dollar will be extremely insignificant and predictable. The euro will behave more chaotically, but we should not expect significant changes in its value. Thus, the period of relative exchange rate stability will continue,” Liesovyi concluded.

A reminder that, as of September 18, 2025, the official exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvnia was set as follows: UAH 41.19 for the U.S. dollar (UAH 41.17 as of September 17, 2025); UAH 48.77 for the euro (UAH 48.65 as of September 17, 2025).

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