Moody's Releases Latest Outlook On Romania's Economy

(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 13.​ Moody's Ratings has affirmed Romania's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at Baa3 while maintaining a negative outlook, Trend reports citing Moody's latest reports.

According to the agency, the decision reflects persistent implementation risks surrounding the government's ambitious fiscal consolidation programme. While fiscal measures adopted in July and September 2025 have materially improved Romania's fiscal outlook, challenges remain in securing political backing, ensuring spending discipline and meeting revenue-raising targets.

Moody's noted that the adopted measures – including VAT increases and freezes on public sector wages and pensions – are expected to exceed 3 percent of GDP in 2025–2026, helping to curb the government's debt trajectory. As a result, Romania's deficit forecast for 2026 was revised to 6.1 percent of GDP from a previous estimate of 7.7 percent. Debt is now projected to stabilise at around 65 percent of GDP in the coming years.

However, the agency warned that risks remain significant. The four-party coalition in power may struggle to maintain unity over fiscal reforms, while the consolidation package could weigh more heavily on economic growth than expected. Romania's track record of weak fiscal management also raises concerns about effective implementation.

At the same time, the affirmation of Romania's Baa3 rating is supported by solid growth potential and comparatively high wealth levels versus peers. Nonetheless, the country's credit profile remains constrained by geopolitical risks tied to its proximity to the war in Ukraine and governance challenges related to fiscal policy and corruption control.

Moody's added that Romania's long-term local and foreign-currency ceilings remain unchanged at A2.

MENAFN13092025000187011040ID1110056434