Brazil's Financial Morning Call For September 12, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets are navigating a complex landscape shaped by domestic political tensions and global monetary policy shifts. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison for leading a conspiracy to overturn the 2022 election. In a historic 4–1 ruling, the court sentenced him on charges including coup d'état, criminal organization, and destruction of protected public property, rejecting amnesty and barring him from office until 2030. This deepened the rift with the United States, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio denounced the verdict as a "witch-hunt." The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, revoked visas for Justice Alexandre de Moraes and his family, and launched a Section 301 trade investigation, risking billions in trade flows and export revenues for steel and agriculture.

Meanwhile, July retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month as expected but rose 1.0% year-on-year, above the 0.8% consensus, signaling fragile consumer momentum.

Cooling August inflation at 5.13% YoY could provide room for Central Bank rate cuts from the 15% Selic rate but also highlights an uneven household demand recovery.

The U.S. tariff reversal on Brazilian cellulose lifts a 10% levy covering 90% of exports, benefiting firms like Suzano, which derives 15–19% of its U.S. sales from these shipments. The move underscores American dependence on Brazil's $6.9 billion cellulose exports through August, potentially easing costs for U.S. tissue products and supporting rural jobs in Brazil. Brazilian firm Méliuz built Bitcoin reserves to 604.69 BTC via low-risk options strategies, hedging against the real's 30% five-year weakening and 5% inflation, with shares up 69% YTD as Brazil's first official Bitcoin Treasury Company. Today's service sector data and global inflation indicators will provide critical insights into Brazil's growth trajectory and market sentiment. Key events include Brazil's Service Sector Growth (MoM and YoY) at 8:00 AM BRT. This tracks the dominant sector comprising over 70% of GDP and will reveal resilience amid fragile retail sales (-0.3% MoM in July) and cooling inflation (5.13% YoY).

These results may influence Central Bank rate cut prospects from 15% Selic and affect stocks like Magazine Luiza.

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 AM BRT will refine Fed rate cut odds, which are near-certain 25 bps next week following the 2.9% August CPI. This data could impact commodity demand for Petrobras and agribusiness exports.

Eurozone CPI releases, such as the German HICP YoY at 2:00 AM BRT, are shaping ECB policy and influencing demand for Brazil's steel, agricultural, and cellulose exports, especially after the U.S. tariff lift.

UK GDP (MoM and YoY) at 2:00 AM BRT showed stagnant 0.0% MoM growth, potentially softening commodity demand for Vale. Chinese credit data, including New Loans at 7:30 AM BRT, may lift iron ore prospects amid soft economic outlooks.

These matter as they clarify consumer/business demand, global trade flows strained by U.S. tariffs risking billions in exports, and monetary easing signals affecting Brazil's growth amid high Selic and political fallout from Bolsonaro's sentence. Economic Agenda for September 12, 2025 Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)

• 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.3%. Tracks monthly services activity, reflecting non-retail consumer and business demand.
• 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.8%. Measures annual services expansion, signaling broader economic health beyond retail.
• 8:00 AM BRT – Brazilian PPI (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous -1.25%. Gauges monthly producer price changes.
• 3:30 PM BRT – CFTC BRL Speculative Net Positions: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 28.9K. Reveals trader sentiment on the real.
• 10:00 AM BRT – Auto Production (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 15.7%. Tracks vehicle output.
• 10:00 AM BRT – Auto Sales (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 14.2%. Measures automotive demand.

Implication: Services and PPI data will reveal resilience in the dominant sector (over 70% of GDP) amid fragile July retail sales (-0.3% MoM, +1.0% YoY) and cooling inflation (5.13% YoY), critical for assessing rate cut prospects from the 15% Selic and supporting stocks like Magazine Luiza. Strong readings could reinforce consumer recovery hopes, while weakness may underscore demand pressures from high rates and U.S. tariffs; auto data signals industrial health, and CFTC positions may indicate currency flows amid trade risks. United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)

• 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 58.2, Previous 58.2. Reflects overall confidence.
• 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Inflation Expectations (1-Year and 5-Year, Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 4.8% (1Y), 3.5% (5Y). Gauges price outlooks.
• 12:00 PM BRT – WASDE Report: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Updates agricultural supply/demand.
• 1:00 PM BRT – Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 414. Tracks drilling activity.
• 1:00 PM BRT – Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 537. Gauges energy sector health.
• 3:30 PM BRT – CFTC Speculative Net Positions (various, for Sep 9): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous (e.g., Crude Oil 102.4K, Gold 249.5K). Reveals trader sentiment.

Implication: Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations will refine Fed rate cut odds (near-certain 25 bps next week after August CPI at 2.9% YoY and 263K jobless claims), influencing commodity demand and Brazil's oil/soy exports via Petrobras and agribusiness. WASDE could pressure soy prices, while rig counts and CFTC data on crude/BRL may signal energy and currency flows amid U.S. tariffs straining trade. Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)

• 2:00 AM BRT – German CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual 2.2%, Consensus 2.2%, Previous 2.0%. Tracks annual consumer inflation.
• 2:00 AM BRT – German HICP (YoY) (Aug): Actual 2.1%, Consensus 2.1%, Previous 1.8%. Annual harmonized gauge.
• 2:45 AM BRT – French CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual 0.9%, Consensus 0.9%, Previous 1.0%. Annual consumer inflation.
• 2:45 AM BRT – French HICP (YoY) (Aug): Actual 0.8%, Consensus 0.8%, Previous 0.9%. Annual harmonized.
• 2:45 AM BRT – Eurozone Inflation (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.9%. Regional annual inflation.
• 2:45 AM BRT – Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.4%, Previous 2.3%. Excludes volatiles.

Implication: Eurozone CPI/HICP figures (e.g., German 2.1% YoY HICP) will shape ECB policy tone, affecting demand for Brazil's steel, ag exports, and Embraer sales; stable readings could support cellulose flows post-U.S. tariff lift, while higher figures may pressure commodities like iron ore for Vale. Other Countries Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)

• 3:30 PM BRT – CFTC MXN Speculative Net Positions: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 73.0K. Trader bets on the peso.

Implication: MXN positioning could signal Mercosur trade flows, impacting Brazil's regional exports amid U.S. tariff parallels. Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.11 trillion)

• 7:50 PM BRT – PPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.8%, Previous 3.0%. Producer price inflation.
• 9:30 PM BRT – Employment Change (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 25.0K, Previous 58.2K. Labor market shift.
• 9:30 PM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 4.2%, Previous 4.2%. Jobless rate.

Implication: Softer Japanese PPI and labor data could weaken yen, boosting global risk appetite and Brazil's export competitiveness amid U.S. tariff risks. United Kingdom

• 2:00 AM BRT – GDP (MoM) (Jul): Actual 0.0%, Consensus 0.0%, Previous 0.4%. Monthly growth.
• 2:00 AM BRT – GDP (YoY) (Jul): Actual 1.4%, Consensus 1.5%, Previous 1.4%. Annual.

Implication: Stagnant UK GDP (0.0% MoM) may soften demand for Brazilian commodities, pressuring Vale amid China uncertainties. India

• 6:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.10%, Previous 1.55%. Annual inflation.

Implication: Lower Indian CPI could stabilize rupee, supporting global EM sentiment and Brazil's ag exports. China

• 7:30 AM BRT – New Loans (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 700.0B, Previous -50.0B. Credit extension.
• 7:30 AM BRT – Total Social Financing (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2,460.0B, Previous 1,160.0B. Broader funding.

Implication: Steady Chinese credit could lift iron ore demand for Vale, countering soft outlooks despite U.S. tariff escalations. Canada

• 8:30 AM BRT – Building Permits (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.7%, Previous -9.0%. Construction starts.

Implication: Canadian data may influence commodity prices, affecting Brazil's mining exports. South Africa

• No specific events listed for today; prior mining data implications carry over for commodity linkages.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's services, PPI, and auto data will clarify non-retail and industrial demand amid July retail softening (-0.3% MoM) and political fallout from Bolsonaro's 27-year sentence. This fallout sparked U.S. 50% tariffs, risking billions in exports.

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment and WASDE reports will drive Fed rate cut expectations following the 2.9% CPI. These developments could affect Petrobras oil and soy revenues.

Meanwhile, Eurozone CPI, such as Germany's 2.1% HICP, will shape ECB policy and influence demand for Brazil's steel and agricultural exports.

Cellulose tariff lift aids Suzano, but broader U.S. rifts amplify volatility for Vale and Embraer; UK/China indicators influence global commodity trends critical for growth. Brazil's Markets Yesterday Brazil's Ibovespa index rose 0.56% to 143,150.03 points on September 11, 2025, with trading volume at 24.5 billion reais reflecting stronger participation despite domestic political tensions from the Supreme Court's 4-1 conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years for coup plotting. The index hit a high of 144,012.50 and a low of 142,349.41, driven by U.S. data with August CPI up 0.4% (above 0.3% consensus) and YoY at 2.9%, plus jobless claims at 263K (over 235K forecast), reinforcing 25 bps Fed cut bets and Wall Street records, with 10-year yields at 4.02%. Retail stocks led, with Magazine Luiza (+8.11%), C&A (+4.80%), Vivara (+4.99%), Cyrela (+4.91%), and Marfrig (+4.17%) surging on consumer strength post-July retail +1.0% YoY and deflation aiding spending; losers included Pão de Açúcar (-5.39%), MRV Engenharia (-4.83%), Caixa Seguridade (-2.46%), Totvs (-1.40%), and Grifols (-1.15%), hit by growth cuts. Technicals show bullish momentum with upward simple moving averages, 50-day SMA support at 140,000, 12-period EMA above 26-period, RSI at 70.99 (overbought), and Bollinger Bands indicating volatility toward 150,000 resistance, with support at 142,000; U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods add trade risks. Read more U.S. Markets Yesterday Wall Street hit new highs as softer labor data fueled rate cut optimism despite hotter CPI. The S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 6,587.47, Nasdaq Composite gained 0.72% to 22,043.07, and Dow Jones advanced 1.36% to 46,108.00, crossing 46,000 for the first time, with ten of eleven S&P sectors up, led by materials and health care. Ten-year Treasury yields settled at 4.01%, lowest since early April, after August CPI rose 0.4% MoM (above 0.3%) but YoY held at 2.9%, and jobless claims hit 263K; Fed funds futures price near-certain 25 bps cut, with more easing eyed. Oil fell with WTI at $62.37 (-2%) and Brent at $66.37 (-1.7%) on oversupply fears. Warner Bros. Discovery surged 29% on takeover talk, Oracle slid 6.2% post-rally; Russell 2000 jumped 1.8% to 2,421.53. Easing yields and broad participation support Brazil's exports, though tariffs strain ties. Read more Mexico's Market Yesterday Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC surged 1.76% to a record 61,553.58, with 30 of 36 components advancing, led by Fomento Economico Mexicano (+3.65% to 167.18) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (+3.52% to 475.00), on export strength and peso gains. The peso strengthened 0.71% to USD/MXN 18.4674, with a 0.5% monthly advance amid U.S. CPI at 2.9% YoY and 263K claims boosting Fed cut odds (three by year-end); DXY up 0.09% to 97.6173 but down 10-11% YTD. Today's CFTC MXN positions will gauge Mercosur trade dynamics for Brazil's exports. Read more Argentina's Market Yesterday Argentina's S&P Merval fell 1.10% to 1,805,182 on September 11, 2025, down 28.10% YTD versus EM's +24.42%, with financials like Supervielle (-4.6%), Transportadora de Gas del Norte (-3.5%), and Edenor (-3.4%) dragging; energy gained with Central Puerto (+1.1%) and Pampa Energia (+0.6%). The peso edged up, with official USD/ARS fixed at 1,445 and blue at 1,390-1,410 (2.4% gap), clearing 200-day MA at 1,200; RSI at 67.49 (near overbought), bullish MACD. Milei's reforms cooled inflation to 1.9% August (33.6% yearly) but spurred -2.6% Q contraction and unemployment; soybean dollars and trade surpluses aided, hinting at stabilization for regional flows. Read more Colombia's Market Yesterday Colombia's COLCAP dipped 0.99% to ~1,855 points, with $85M volume; Celsia led energy (+1.2%) on $1.2B Peru renewables, Ecopetrol fell 2.1% on oil wobbles; YTD +40.47%, topping Argentina's 25%. The peso gained 0.80% to USD/COP 3,887.30, Latin America's second-strongest, on eurobond issuance after a decade and Q1 growth at 2.7% plus 9.54% wage hike; DXY at 97.65. Bearish USD/COP with RSI oversold and bullish MACD divergence; fiscal concerns linger but steady trade supports Mercosur ties. Read more Chile's Market Yesterday Chile's IPSA rose 1.98% to 9,151.39, driven by mining/banking and foreign buying on copper output; Latam Airlines (+3.5%), SQM (+2.8%), Banco de Chile (+2.2%), Enel Chile (+1.9%), Cencosud (+1.5%) led, SalfaCorp (-1.2%), Colbún (-1.0%) lagged; ETF inflows boosted iShares MSCI Chile. The peso strengthened 1.71% to USD/CLP 950.13 (low 949.22), on U.S. inflation easing; RSI at 29 (oversold), bearish MACD crossover for USD/CLP. Exporters benefit, with Fed watch key for EM currencies. Read more Commodities Brazilian Real The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.3922 per dollar on September 11, 2025, up 0.27% from prior levels, with overnight easing to 5.3895 by September 12 morning, driven by U.S. CPI at 2.9% YoY and 263K claims boosting Fed cut bets, plus domestic deflation supporting resilience despite 50% U.S. tariffs on imports.

Projections eye 5.293 by late September. Technicals show a downtrend, with the price piercing the 200-day SMA at 5.6300. The 50-period EMA is below the 200-period on the 4-hour chart.

RSI is near 40, indicating oversold conditions, while MACD bars are negative. Bollinger Bands are tightening, currently ranging between 5.3800 and 5.4000.

Support is at 5.3688, with resistance at 5.4209. A break below support could trigger a potential drop to 5.3500. Lower dollar aids exporters but tariff risks cloud; Brazil ETFs saw $464M inflows in May.

Read more Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $115,406 on September 11, 2025, with market cap at $4.01 trillion; Ethereum +3.06% to $4,548.8, Solana +7.08% to $237.96, XRP +2.07% to $3.0621, Litecoin steady at $115. Altcoins volatile: HOLO +2990.73% to $0.4636, ARIA +60.06% to $0.1685; MYX -25.69% to $13.2046. Rebound on U.S. CPI 2.9% fueling Fed cuts, $552.7M BTC ETF inflows, $113.1M ETH; BTC above 200-day SMA, bullish MACD. Brazilian Méliuz added to 604.69 BTC via low-risk put options, hedging inflation/real weakness, shares +69% YTD as Latin America's top holder, signaling fintech adoption. Resistance at $116,000, RSI 52; U.S. data critical for flows. Read more Companies and Market Industry Outlook Brazil's economy faces mixed signals as cooling inflation at 5.13% YoY and July retail +1.0% YoY raise rate cut hopes, supporting retail/consumer sectors, while U.S. 50% tariffs post-Bolsonaro's 27-year coup sentence risk export billions in steel/ag, deepening bilateral rifts with visa sanctions on Justice Moraes. The cellulose sector gains from U.S. tariff reversal on 90% of exports, boosting Suzano's 15-19% U.S. sales and $6.9B shipments through August (+1.4% value), easing U.S. tissue costs; aviation sees Embraer's $4.4B Avelo deal aiding exports but CADE's Gol-Azul halt delaying consolidation. Services data today (8:00 AM BRT) will probe demand post-retail softening, while U.S. Michigan (10:00 AM BRT) and Euro CPI (2:00-2:45 AM BRT) influence commodities/exports. High Selic (15%) and trade uncertainties pressure growth, but cellulose resilience and crypto hedging (e.g., Méliuz) offer upside. Key Developments Bolsonaro Conviction and U.S. Rift: STF's 27-year sentence for coup crimes (4-1 vote) ends Bolsonaro's career, with Justice Moraes warning against military-backed groups; U.S. Rubio calls it“witch-hunt,” imposing 50% tariffs, visa revocations, and Section 301 probe, risking trade surplus and firms like Vale/Petrobras amid $ billions at stake. Brazil's Foreign Ministry vows sovereignty defense. Read more U.S. Cellulose Tariff Reversal: Trump's September 5 order lifted 10% tariff on key codes effective September 8, reversing April hikes; U.S. relies on Brazil for 78% cellulose consumption (2.8M tons last year), aiding Suzano's Q2 volume +23% QoQ; exports down 15.2% value Jan-May but +15.6% quantity YTD, supporting jobs/revenue despite paper/wood tariffs lingering. Read more Retail Sales Softening: July sales -0.3% MoM (consensus match, prior -0.1%) but +1.0% YoY (above 0.8% forecast, from 0.4%), driven by services/durables amid fragile demand; cooling inflation offers relief, but weak flows/global risks cloud Central Bank easing space, with IPCA-15 mid-September key for Magazine Luiza/C&A. Read more Méliuz Bitcoin Strategy: Méliuz accumulated 604.69 BTC (latest +9.01 on Sep 3 for $1.01M), using cash/share raises ($32.4M in June) and cash-secured put options for yield/volatility, allocating up to 10% reserves to hedge 5% inflation/real's 30% 5Y drop; first Brazilian Bitcoin Treasury, shares +69% YTD, inspiring fintech adoption. Read more Vale's Investment Cut: Vale reduced 2025 capex to bolster cash amid uncertain China iron ore demand, adding stock volatility and commodity caution. Read more Embraer's Avelo Deal: Embraer's $4.4B regional jets pact with Avelo bolsters U.S. exports, reshaping aviation and revenue outlook. Read more Gol-Azul Merger Pause: CADE halted talks pending approval, injecting uncertainty into aviation consolidation/synergies. Read more Petrobras Strength: Stable oil lifted Petrobras +1.8% yesterday; WASDE/CFTC data today key for valuations amid Brent $66.37 drop. Read more

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