Russian Drones Downed By Poland Possibly Linked To NATO Jamming

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Such interference may have caused Russian drones to veer off course into Poland during the latest large-scale strikes against Ukraine. Aggressive signals jamming could also precede the possible implementation of reported plans to impose a no-fly zone over at least part of Ukraine, tied to the West's proposed security guarantees .

Although nowhere as foolproof as patrols over Ukrainian airspace and authorizing NATO-based Patriots to protect its skies, such a move would carry a significantly lower escalation risk.

Moreover, if NATO expected that its speculative signals jamming – possibly ramped up after the von der Leyen-GPS-Russia hoax, which might have been timed to coincide with the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills – would cause Russian drones to veer off course, then this might be part of a preplanned escalation.

The objective could be to rally support for the no-fly zone proposal – or even to begin gradually implementing it under the pretext of“proactive defense” in light of this incident.

More than three and a half years into the“special military operation” , Russia would have by now presumably gamed out everything that could realistically follow the scenario of several of its drones crossing into Poland, with policymakers thus likely aware that this could be exploited to advance the no-fly zone agenda.

This insight, accordingly, reduces the odds that the incident was a deliberate provocation or a botched reconnaissance mission – either of which would likely have been carried out in force to make the cost-benefit tradeoff more worthwhile.

This follows a similar logic as in this analysis here arguing that Russia probably didn't deliberately target the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kiev, in order to avoid fueling the no-fly zone plot.