This Analyst Expects Tesla Q3 Deliveries To Fall Below Consensus Estimates: Retail Sees Rally To $400 After Next Earnings

Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said on Wednesday that the available Tesla Inc. (TSLA) August sales data remains weak, despite the end of the U.S. federal tax credit on EV purchases on September 30.

Of the three major markets it tracks, Wells Fargo said that August Tesla deliveries are trending down 9% year-over-year, although they are 37% higher month-over-month.

Despite the month-over-month increase, Q3 deliveries are still at risk compared to consensus, the firm added, according to TheFly. Wells Fargo has an 'Underweight' rating on the shares with a price target of $120, implying a downside of about 65% from the stock's closing price on Tuesday.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock jumped from 'neutral' to 'bullish' territory over the past 24 hours while message volume stayed at 'high' levels. Shares of the EV maker traded 2% higher at the time of writing.

A Stocktwits user believes the next earnings report could push the stock up to $400.

Another user believes the stock is overvalued.

Langan's take is in contrast with The Future Fund Managing Partner, Gary Black, who said earlier this week that he now expects Tesla to report 5% more deliveries than the consensus delivery estimate of 431,000 vehicles in the third quarter. In Q3 2024, Tesla reported 462,890 vehicle deliveries.

U.S. federal tax credit of $7,500 on new EV purchases, as well as the $4,000 credit on used EV purchases, are set to expire on September 30. Tesla is currently urging customers to take delivery by September 30, while adding that it has limited inventory available. Tesla reported a year-on-year decline in vehicle deliveries in both the first and second quarters of this year.

The company is currently trying to shift its focus toward artificial intelligence and robotics with investments in self-driving taxis and humanoid robots. However, these investments are currently in the development phase, and EVs continue to account for a majority of the company's revenues.

TSLA stock is down by 12% this year but up by about 57% over the past 12 months.

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