New Markets Could Redefine Brazil's Exports

Brazil has long powered its export engine by selling to a familiar triad: China, the United States and the European Union. That concentration delivered scale, but it also left Brazil exposed to policy swings, tariff cycles and the fragility of long-haul supply chains. In 2024, Brazil exported about US$ 337 billion in goods, an impressive sum that leaned heavily on a few dominant buyers.

If the next decade is about resilience as much as growth, Brazil must widen its horizon. The Middle East, often caricatured as“just energy”, is quietly becoming one of the most consequential trade corridors on earth. Its economies are investing at unprecedented pace in ports, logistics and food security. For Brazil, the region is not one hub or one bet; it is a development path across multiple markets with complementary roles that can rebalance risk and redefine where value is created.

Over twenty years ago, I was part of the team that designed and launched the first regular container ship service between Brazil and the Middle East. It was an immediate success. For the first time, a multitude of Brazilian exporters, from agribusiness to manufactured goods, could reach Gulf markets directly. On the other side, importers gained reliable access to Brazilian supply. The mutual benefits were obvious and long-lasting.

That experience offers a simple lesson: when you build the right logistics conveyor belt, trade follows. Today, Brazil has the chance to orchestrate a new conveyor belt, one that carries not only soybeans and beef, but a diversified slate of goods and services into the welcoming doors of the Middle East.

The commercial logic starts with food. Agribusiness is Brazil's natural bridge. In 2024, it represented roughly half of Brazil's total exports. The Gulf states, meanwhile, import up to 85% of their food needs, making Brazil an indispensable supplier of grains, protein and sugar.

Trade is already material. Last year Brazil exported US$23.7 billion to Arab countries, generating a record surplus of US$ 13.5 billion. Exports to the United Arab Emirates alone reached about US$ 4.5 billion, with poultry shipments to the UAE and Saudi Arabia ranking among Brazil's largest volumes.

Yet the opportunity goes far beyond meat and grain. The same corridor that moves food can carry industrial goods, energy cooperation (biofuels, petrochemical inputs), machinery and even services linked to construction, infrastructure and logistics. The goal is not to swap one dependency for another, but to cultivate a portfolio, to add a resilient, growth-focused region to Brazil's trade map, and to do it intentionally.

Two structural shifts make this moment different. First, the Middle East is investing to become a crossroads of global trade. Saudi Arabia's National Transport and Logistics Strategy aims to lift port throughput to 40 million TEUs by 2030, alongside rail and air cargo expansion. In the UAE, DP World handled a record 88.3 million TEUs in 2024, reinforcing the Gulf's role as a buffer and gateway in global supply chains.

Second, food security is now treated as critical infrastructure. Gulf governments are spending billions on cold chain networks, bonded storage and strategic procurement. For Brazil, that translates into long-horizon demand paired with modern infrastructure, an ideal platform to secure market share.

The vision is clear, but ambition collides with two stubborn barriers: logistics and finance. On logistics, Brazil–Gulf routes remain long and often indirect. Unreliable transit times and costly variability reduce competitiveness. Domestic bottlenecks at Brazilian ports compound the problem, where dwell times and documentation delays often derail margins.

On finance, exporters struggle with currency risk, limited access to credit instruments and the complexity of compliance. Globally, the trade finance gap hovers near US$ 2.5 trillion, and small and medium exporters, who make up the backbone of Brazil's diversified export base, are among the hardest hit. Ironically, default rates on trade-finance instruments remain among the lowest in banking, but regulatory and capital constraints still choke capacity.

To seize the Middle East moment, Brazil should adopt a corridor-first strategy, not a cargo-first approach. That means:

• Dependable sailings and transshipments: fixed-day weekly departures aligned with Brazil's commodity calendars, paired with stable feeder networks into Gulf distribution zones.
• Cold chain and bonded storage on both ends: enabling exporters to pre-position goods and capture demand spikes without missing market windows.
• Institutionalized risk-sharing finance: standardized use of letters of credit, supply chain finance and multilateral risk-sharing programs dedicated to Brazil–Gulf flows.
• Contracting reliability: embedding on-time incentives and rollover penalties into freight contracts, so exporters aren't forced to absorb logistics risk for free.
• Widened product slate: from protein and grains to processed foods, packaging, machinery and biofuels. The corridor strengthens as the mix diversifies.

Critics might argue Brazil already has enough demand in China, the U.S. and Europe. But diversification is not about today's order book, it's about tomorrow's volatility. A single tariff cycle, health scare or geopolitical disruption can close doors overnight. A broader customer base cushions those shocks.

The Middle East's decades-long investment horizon matches Brazil's need for predictable off-take. And its connectivity into Africa and South Asia makes it more than a destination: it becomes a platform for Brazil to reach secondary markets with shorter incremental steps.

Success would mean lowering Brazil's concentration risk, tightening corridor reliability metrics, unlocking more trade-finance capacity and upgrading the export mix toward higher-value goods. It would also mean embedding Brazil into the very architecture of the Middle East's trade strategy, an architecture designed to be resilient, diversified and central to global flows.

The last time Brazil committed to this corridor, two decades ago, the results were immediate and lasting. The first container service created access, trust and growth. Today, the challenge is bigger, but so is the prize.

Brazil stands at the edge of a chance not just to export more, but to export smarter. The task now is to orchestrate a new conveyor belt, one that connects Brazil's alternative markets directly into the Middle East's welcoming doors. If built with intention, that belt could redefine Brazil's role in the global economy for the next generation.

* Mario Veraldo is the CEO and co-founder of MTM Logix and a specialist in global logistics and digital innovation, serving as a consultant to governments, organizations, global funds, and executives of major companies.

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