Oilseeds Market To Reach US$ 331.5 Billion By 2033 Astute Analytica
Market Forecast (2033) | US$ 331.5 billion |
CAGR | 4.1% |
Largest Region (2024) | Asia Pacific (37%) |
By Product | Soybean (60%) |
By Type | Animal Feed (58%) |
By Biotech Trait | Herbicide Tolerant (41%) |
By End Users | Commercial or Corporate sector (49%) |
Top Drivers |
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Top Trends |
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Top Challenges |
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China's Unwavering Demand Continues to Shape the Global Oilseeds Market
China remains the central hub of global oilseed demand, with its consumption and import figures profoundly influencing international market trends. The nation's total soybean consumption is estimated to reach 124.4 million tons for the 2025-26 period, underscoring its critical role. To meet such immense demand, soybean imports by China are forecast to be 109.0 million tons for 2024/25. A separate forecast for 2025-26 places China's soybean imports at a similarly high level of 106 million tons. The country's demand extends beyond animal feed, with the direct use of soybeans for food expected to reach 17.5 million tons in 2025-26.
While heavily reliant on imports, China also maintains significant domestic production and stocks. The country's domestic soybean production for 2025-26 is estimated at 19.8 million tons. To ensure stability and manage supply, China is projected to hold an estimated 43.86 million metric tons of soybean stocks by the end of 2025. The demand for soybean meal, a key component of animal feed, is expected to see a slow recovery. A recovery in feed demand is the primary driver behind the projected 101 million tons crush in 2025-26, highlighting the intricate link between the livestock industry and the oilseeds market.
Mapping Global Trade Flows with Strong Export and Import Activity
International trade in oilseeds is projected to be exceptionally active, facilitating the movement of crops from surplus to deficit regions. Global oilseed trade is forecasted to total 207.3 million tons in 2024/25, a testament to the interconnectedness of the agricultural economy. The trade in processed products is equally robust, with world soybean meal exports in 2025/26 forecasted at 82.0 million tons. Key exporting nations are gearing up to meet demand. Canada's rapeseed exports are anticipated to reach 7.25 million tons, with another forecast expecting the country to export 7.4 million tons of its harvest. Brazil's soybean meal exports are forecasted at a substantial 21.0 million tons.
On the import side, demand is geographically diverse in the oilseeds market. The EU is expected to require 14 million tons of bean imports to cover its consumption needs, alongside 6.3 million tons of rapeseed imports. China's appetite for processed products remains strong, with its rapeseed meal imports forecasted to be 2.2 million tons for 2025/26. The U.S. is also a key player in the oil trade, with soybean oil exports projected to increase to 1.6 billion pounds. Meanwhile, the combined palm oil exports from Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to be marginally lower in 2024/25 due to higher domestic demand. Emerging import markets, such as Iraq with its forecasted 800,000 tons of soybean imports in 2024/25, are also beginning to make their mark.
Vegetable Oil Sector Expansion Driven by Strong Food and Industrial Demand
The global vegetable oil segment of the oilseeds market is expanding steadily, driven by rising demand in both food and industrial applications. Global vegetable oil production in 2024/25 is expected to grow to a significant 228 million tons. Matching pace with production, the global consumption of vegetable oil is forecast to expand to nearly 224 million tons in the same period. Palm oil continues to be the market leader in volume. Indonesia's palm oil production for 2024/25 is estimated at 49.9 million metric tons, while neighboring Malaysia's production for the same period is forecasted to be 19.4 million metric tons.
Key importing nations are securing their supplies to meet domestic needs. India's palm oil imports for 2024/25 are estimated at a substantial 9.9 million metric tons. China's palm oil imports are projected to be 5.9 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season. The EU-27 is also a major consumer, expected to import 4.0 million metric tons of palm oil in 2024/25. The consistent growth in both production and consumption across different oil types highlights the essential role these commodities play in the global food supply chain and various industrial processes, reinforcing the stability of the broader oilseeds market.
Biofuel Sector Growth Emerges as a Powerful New Demand Driver
The biofuel sector, particularly the production of renewable diesel, has become a formidable source of new demand for vegetable oils. The USDA forecasts that an incredible 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used for biofuel production in the U.S. during the 2025-26 marketing year. For the preceding 2024-25 marketing year, soybean oil use in U.S. biofuel production is estimated at 12.25 billion pounds, with an earlier forecast having pegged the figure at 12.9 billion pounds. A broader study estimated that 68 million metric tons of feedstocks will be available by 2025, which is sufficient to produce over 19 billion gallons of renewable diesel in the oilseeds market.
The production and consumption figures for renewable diesel in the United States underscore the sector's rapid growth. In the U.S., renewable diesel production is expected to average 205,000 barrels per day in 2025. Correspondingly, U.S. consumption of renewable diesel is forecasted to be 191,000 barrels per day in 2025. The market's trajectory is further supported by policy. In 2025, the implementation of a producer's tax credit in the U.S. is expected to significantly increase domestic demand for feedstocks for biofuel production, cementing the sector's influence on the overall market for years to come.
Surging Animal Feed Demand Bolsters the Global Oilseed Meal Sector
The demand for high-protein oilseed meal as a primary component in animal feed continues its upward climb in the oilseeds market, fueled by a growing global livestock sector. Global oilseed meal production is forecasted to grow by a healthy 4 percent in 2024/25. In lockstep, global oilseed meal consumption is expected to climb nearly 4 percent in the same period, reflecting the strong demand from animal agriculture. World soybean meal exports in 2025/26 are forecasted at a robust 82.0 million tons, indicating a bustling international trade designed to meet regional feed deficits.
Asia, in particular, is a major consumption hub for oilseed meal. In China, total oilseed processing for feed is estimated at 137.3 million tons in 2024-25. The nation's consumption of meal for feed during that period is estimated at 102.7 million tons, showcasing the immense scale of its livestock industry. Other Asian nations are also significant importers. For instance, Indonesia's soybean meal imports are forecasted to reach 6.2 million tons in 2024/25. The direct relationship between livestock production and meal consumption ensures that the animal feed sector remains a foundational pillar supporting the entire oilseeds market complex.
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Market Outlook and Pricing Trends Reflect a Well-Supplied Global Environment
Current projections for stock levels and prices suggest a well-supplied market, which is expected to create a stable to slightly bearish price environment. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecasted to be a comfortable 140.48 million tons. Specifically for soybeans, global ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to increase to 128.5 million tons, indicating ample supply. A later forecast for 2025-26 adjusted global soybean ending stocks down slightly to 124.9 million tons, but the level remains high, suggesting that supply will continue to outpace demand growth.
These supply dynamics are reflected in price forecasts for the United States, a key benchmark oilseeds market. The season-average soybean price in the U.S. for 2025-26 is forecast at $10.10 per bushel. Prices for processed products are also expected to moderate, with the U.S. soybean meal price for 2025-26 forecasted at $280 per short ton. The U.S. soybean oil price is forecasted to be 53 cents per pound for 2025-26. In the global vegetable oil market, palm oil is projected to trade in the range of US $1000 to US $1200 per ton in the first quarter of 2025, providing a stable outlook for the world's most traded vegetable oil.
Global Oilseeds Market Major Players:
- BASF SE Cargill Inc. DuPont Groupe Limagrain Holding Land O'Lakes Inc. Mahyco Seeds Company Limited Monsanto Company Nuziveedu Seeds Ltd Seed Co Limited Syngenta Other Prominent Players
Key Market Segmentation:
By Biotech Trait
- Herbicide Tolerant Insecticide Resistant Other Stacked Trait
By Type
- Animal Feed Edible Oil
By Breeding
- Genetically Modified Conventional
By Product
- Sunflower Soybean Peanut Cottonseed Rapeseed Others
By End User
- Household or Residential Area Commercial or Corporate sector Automobiles
By Application
- Oilseed Meal Vegetable Oil
By Region
- North America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East & Africa (MEA) South America
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About Astute Analytica
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