Warnings In Israel Against Relying On Trump And Placing Strategic Issues In His Hands

The Israeli security cabinet is set to convene on Sunday to give final approval to detailed operational plans for the takeover of Gaza City. Despite military reservations over the campaign and its potential consequences, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing forward, buoyed by open U.S. backing and the absence of strong domestic or international criticism. His allies in the media are also trying to exploit the reported“assassination of Abu Ubaida” in an effort to sap the morale of the resistance.

The stalled prisoner-exchange deal, which Israel has yet to respond to despite Hamas's acceptance of the Egyptian-Qatari proposal more than two weeks ago, will not be on the agenda. Instead, the cabinet will debate“Operation Iron Fist,” with the army preparing to launch it soon after the failure of the earlier“Gideon's Chariots” campaign to subdue Hamas and secure the release of captives.

Leaked assessments show the military is reluctant, preferring a deal over a costly invasion. Facing a campaign imposed upon it, the army is planning a slow, cautious advance accompanied by heavy bombardment to reduce risks to its soldiers, according to Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel. Yet, like other commentators, Harel warns that the advance could encounter major obstacles given Gaza's densely packed civilian population, many of whom refuse to flee. In what amounts to a veiled warning about the operation's outcome, he writes that Netanyahu and Trump are betting that military pressure will force Hamas to yield, while the army sees no signs of collapse or loss of will to fight.“This operation will take far longer than Netanyahu promises Trump,” Harel cautions, predicting a possible crisis with Washington once the gap between rhetoric and reality becomes clear. He notes that Netanyahu's allies have already begun blaming Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir for allegedly slowing the offensive.

Analysts argue that Israel is also emboldened by the muted international response. Unlike sanctions against Russia or Iran, pressure on Israel has so far been limited to verbal criticism or vague threats of recognition of a Palestinian state. Michael Milshtein, a Palestinian affairs expert at Tel Aviv University, wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth that Israel dismisses global criticism and mocks all international actors except the United States. He warned that staking everything on Trump's continued support is a dangerous strategic gamble, since the U.S. president is prone to sudden shifts:“Our vital national interests cannot be left to the mood of the White House.”

Political commentator Ben-Dror Yemini echoed these concerns, noting that Israel's standing in U.S. public opinion is“at its lowest point ever” and warning of the repercussions of a Gaza City invasion. Even Jake Sullivan, the former U.S. national security adviser and a staunch supporter of Israel, recently suggested banning arms exports to Tel Aviv.

Washington's green light was further underscored by its decision to bar Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas from entering the United States to attend the UN General Assembly in September. Israeli commentators view this as another success for Netanyahu in manipulating Trump, a tactic former Prime Minister Ehud Barak has also warned against. In an editorial, Haaretz urged the UN not to submit to U.S. pressure, recalling the 1988 episode when Yasser Arafat was denied a visa, prompting the General Assembly to move its session to Geneva. The paper wrote:“The UN must make clear to America that it is merely the host state, not the owner of the organization. The path to helping Israel is not through empowering extremists and prolonging war, but by pressing both sides toward a historic settlement with the Palestinian people.”

At the domestic level, Netanyahu benefits from the absence of mass protests. Analysts suggest this is not resignation but tacit approval of the attempt to crush Palestinian resistance and claim a decisive victory. Some dissent exists, though outside the mainstream. Former Northern Command chief Amiram Levin has been running paid ads in Haaretz calling on the army to defy political leaders.“If this war continues, everything will go to hell – the hostages, the soldiers, the economy, the home, the family, international support,” his statement read. Prominent author and commentator Iris Leal also urged Israelis to celebrate soldiers who refuse to fight in what she called“a war of extermination,” arguing that as long as refusers are not recognized as heroes, the war will drag on and Netanyahu will remain in power.

Columnist Gideon Levy voiced similar criticism, condemning Israeli indifference to the mass killing of Palestinian civilians and accusing the media of complicity. In a lecture in Nazareth, he likened Israeli journalism to Nazi propaganda before World War II, saying it was worse than its Soviet counterpart. In his latest column, Levy accused Israeli society of selective morality:“There are 20 hostages alive, and two million Palestinians living in hell. Our conscience must be with both.”

A recent Accord Center poll revealed that 76% of Israelis see no distinction between combatants and civilians in Gaza, effectively legitimizing the killing of innocents. Netanyahu is also bolstered by the presidency, which has historically shaped public sentiment during wars. Yedioth Ahronoth reported that President Isaac Herzog is considering granting clemency to Ami Popper, who massacred seven Palestinian workers in Rishon Lezion in 1990, citing the precedent of previous prisoner releases.

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