(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Bullish view

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1835.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1500
• Add a stop-loss at 1.1835.

The EUR/USD exchange rate pulled back as the recent sentiment on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts faded. The pair was trading at 1.1625, down from last Friday's high of 1740 Consumer Confidence Data Ahead

The EUR/USD pair pulled back as investors embraced a risk-off sentiment following the Friday's surge. It had soared on Friday after the much-awaited Jerome Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

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In that speech, Powell expressed concerns that the country's labor market was slowing in his first statement after the recent nonfarm payroll (NFP) data. The report revealed that the economy created just 73,000 jobs in July as the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair dropped as investors waited for more macro data from the US to confirm when the interest rate cut will happen. The first important data will be the nonfarm payroll numbers set for Friday next week, followed by the consumer price index a week later.

Another set of week jobs numbers will confirm a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the September 17 meeting.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair will release key economic numbers this week. The first one is the upcoming consumer confidence report on Tuesday. Data compiled by Reuters shows that economists expect the data to come in at 98, a slight improvement from 97 in July.

The US will also publish the house price index, durable goods orders, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

The other top macro data to watch this week will be the second estimate of the US GDP data on Thursday, followed by the personal consumer expenditure (PCE) report on Friday this week. These numbers will play a part in the next Fed meeting in September/USD Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate rebounded from a low of 1.1390 on August 1 to a high of 1.1740 on Friday after Powell's speech.

While the pair pulled back on Monday, it has remained slightly above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has provided it with substantial support in the past few days.

The pair also formed the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and is now slightly below the neckline.

Therefore, the most likely EUR/USD forecast is where it rebounds and surges to the year-to-date high of 1.1835. A drop below the support at 1.1500 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

EURUSD Chart by TradingView

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