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The fact that European allies came to America's assistance (rather than the US coming to the aid of Europe) means Article 5 is a symbolic resource in transatlantic relations, which NATO's European members can wield to remind the US president of his country's commitment.

This is important. Trump has periodically suggested the US would not be prepared to defend perceived alliance“free-riders”. But the agreement at NATO's Hague summit in June to raise defence spending among the allies went a long way to head off a transatlantic rupture by allaying Trump's fears on that score.

Worries that the American military presence in Europe would be summarily withdrawn have so far proved unfounded. The US president now praises NATO as being engaged with America in what the White House has called a “new era of shared responsibility.”

Levels of commitment

The true effect of Article 5 lies in the wars that have not occurred rather than those that have. Under Putin, Russia has attacked both Georgia and Ukraine.

It has not invaded a NATO ally. This is why Ukraine has always been so keen to become a member of NATO, something that has been accepted in principle by most members of the alliance for some years.

But since the invasion of Ukraine, that route to an Article 5 security guarantee has been expressly ruled out by the Trump administration, as well as by NATO itself. Instead, the alliance's secretary general, Mark Rutte, has referred to “Article 5-type of security guarantees for Ukraine.” What has still to be publicly discussed is precisely what this might entail.

Some of the parameters are, however, becoming clear. Trump suggested that he wants Europeans to be“the first line of defense”, with the US providing intelligence, weapons (paid for by Europe) and air support of some kind. He was quite clear that there would be no US “boots on the ground.”

Ukraine's European allies are now mulling over what their role as guarantors of security for a peace deal might look like. It has been reported that the head of the UK's armed forces, Tony Radakin, will tell a meeting of military commanders at the Pentagon that the UK is prepared to send troops to Ukraine – not as a frontline fighting force, but to provide security at ports and air bases.

How many members of the coalition of the willing are prepared to do the same remains uncertain.

Patchwork of agreements

What went unmentioned at the White House meeting was the significant set of security and defense commitments Ukraine already enjoys with the NATO allies. Since the G7 Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine of July 2023, Ukraine has signed bilateral security and defence agreements with 27 of NATO's 32 members.

Typically , these provide for consultation within 24 hours if Ukraine is attacked, in order (as Ukraine's agreements with the UK and France both put it)“to determine measures needed to counter or deter the aggression.”

There are also common provisions for military capacity building, recognition of Ukraine's territorial integrity and post-war reconstruction. Taken in the round, these agreements thus already provide the political basis for a comprehensive and effective set of security guarantees.