Russia's Recognition Of The Taliban: A New Great Game?

Russia's recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan marks a significant shift in geopolitical alignments, signaling Moscow's broader strategy to expand its influence in Central and South Asia. Officially recognized on July 3, 2025, Russia becomes the first nation to acknowledge the Taliban's rule, ushering in a new Great Game of regional and global power dynamics.

Following the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, Russia maintained a pragmatic relationship by keeping its embassy open and engaging in unofficial diplomacy. In 2025, Russia removed the Taliban from its terrorist list and hosted Taliban delegations at major forums such as the Kazan Forum and the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, signaling Afghanistan's deeper integration into Russia's sphere.

Moscow's official recognition reflects a shift from informal engagement to full diplomatic endorsement. The Kremlin aims to expand trade relations, particularly in oil, gas, and wheat, while strengthening Afghanistan's economic integration within Russia-led frameworks. This move could challenge China's growing influence in Afghanistan, particularly concerning the country's natural resources.

On the security front, Russia's engagement with the Taliban is likely driven by counter-terrorism concerns, especially with the Islamic State of Khorasan (IS-K) threatening Russian security. Moscow's recognition may encourage other countries, including China and Central Asian republics, to follow suit, reshaping the regional geopolitical landscape.

The growing acceptance of militant-led governments poses a threat to international norms regarding state legitimacy. This move risks encouraging other militant groups globally to pursue power through force, believing geopolitical interests might lead to formal recognition. The potential for a fragmented strategic landscape in the post-Western intervention era could reshape global diplomacy.

This shift marks the beginning of a new phase in the regional“Great Game” as Russia strengthens ties with the Taliban. While the West may respond with sanctions and diplomatic backlash, Moscow's strategic calculus appears geared toward cementing its role as a major regional player and increasing its influence in Central Asia.

In the short term, Russia will likely deepen diplomatic and trade relations with Afghanistan, paving the way for joint infrastructure and security projects. However, ongoing internal instability and terrorist threats from groups like IS-Khorasan could undermine this momentum.

Afghanistan could become a pivotal player in the new Great Game, with recognition from additional regional actors. Potential long-term scenarios may include Afghanistan's integration into Russian-led economic structures such as the Eurasian Economic Union or even China's Belt and Road Initiative.

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