Tehran's Civilian Exodus Accelerates Amid Escalating Airstrikes

(MENAFN- The Arabian Post) Arabian Post Staff -Dubai

Tehran has entered a state of widespread panic as thousands of residents flee the capital following the latest wave of Israeli airstrikes targeting military, nuclear, energy, and regime-linked sites.

Cities in northern provinces such as Mazandaran, Gilan and Alborz have reported being inundated with evacuees, many travelling along the Tehran–North and Tehran–Qom highways, with gridlock stretching for miles. Fuel stations in Tehran and Karaj are overwhelmed, and shoppers report shortages of essentials amid surge demand. The Iranian capital's internet has been intermittently throttled amid efforts to suppress distress and control the narrative.

The operation, identified by Israeli leaders as“Operation Rising Lion,” commenced on 13 June when hundreds of precision strikes struck facilities tied to Iran's nuclear aspirations, ballistic missile production, IRGC leadership and critical infrastructure in and around Tehran. High-value targets were obliterated, including the South Pars gas field, military command centres, and the Defence Ministry, underlining Israel's expanded scope beyond nuclear installations.

Toll estimates vary: Iranian sources cite more than 224 civilian deaths, including over a dozen IRGC commanders and key nuclear scientists, with more than 900 injured. Israeli authorities report 10 to 14 fatalities in Israel from Iranian missile counterattacks. Silence from Tehran's official channels contrasts with visible damage and civilian trauma-homes laid waste, shattered windows, and heavy reliance on basements, subway stations and schools repurposed as makeshift shelters.

Despite a state warning against mass exodus, authorities suggested citizens near refineries evacuate and advised use of metro systems for shelter. But many view this response as inadequate; Tehran lacks a network of formal bomb shelters, and a culture that venerates martyrdom over civilian safety has limited protective infrastructure.

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Residents describe scenes of desperation: families abandoning homes, children crying, and queues forming at petrol stations and ATMs amid collapsing communications. One finance analyst shared that“windows began to shake” and smoke seeped into her home during a Sunday strike, prompting her to leave the city with neighbours. Another Tehran student spoke of long petrol lines at stations and panicking crowds hunting for food.

Domestic anxiety is compounded by structural vulnerabilities. The Iranian economy, enduring its deepest crisis in decades, faces inflation rates above 40%, mass unemployment and widespread food insecurity. This backdrop of poverty and instability was outlined by Iranian government statistics and global economic monitoring groups. The middle class, already suffering from double-digit inflation and unemployment, is struggling to cope with this surge in insecurity.

In this context, analysts caution that the airstrikes may fit a wider strategy. With senior members of the IRGC and nuclear scientists killed, Israeli officials are believed to be signalling a shift towards undermining regime stability and infrastructure to accelerate political change. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged Iranians to rise against the clerical leadership, though experts warn that such encouragement could backfire, consolidating hardliner control and prompting Tehran to accelerate its nuclear timeline.

International observers are also raising alarms about spill‐on effects. Crude oil prices have jumped over 10%, a sign of global markets jittering at the potential for further escalation. Meanwhile, the World Bank warns that heightened war intensity may undermine adjacent states involved in sensitive hydrocarbon trade and production.

Within Iran, elites are now confronting increasingly vocal criticism. Social media posts mocking authorities for failing to build basic shelters are circulating despite internet restrictions. While some citizens express threats of retaliation, others develop resignation:“You worry what's going to come next,” one resident remarked, reflecting the capital's unease.

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Interviews with experts indicate a nation on the cusp of transformation. Iran's leadership, confronted by a collapsing economy, degrading military deterrent, and a civilian population on the move, faces growing internal rupture. However, dissent remains fragmented and tightly controlled by the IRGC and security services.

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