Ukraine Talks Hang On Russia's Palm Sunday Missile Strike

Russia's explanation maintains the country's integrity by insisting that the targets were legitimate, though it also accounts for the reported civilian casualties by claiming Ukraine employs de facto human shields by illegally deploying military assets in civilian areas.

While critics might scoff at this version of the attack, it has been lent credence by the mayor of nearby Konotop, who declared on video that the regional military governor“organized an award ceremony for the soldiers of the 117th brigade” that day.

He also said that civilians were invited to attend the event, which he claimed that the regional military governor was earlier warned not to hold, presumably due to the risk of a Russian strike.

This additional information, which is omitted from many of the mainstream media reports about Palm Sunday's missile strike, contextualizes Russia's decision-making process and the reported civilian casualties.

Accordingly, from Russia's perspective, it was neither a war crime nor a terrible mistake but a legitimate strike.

To elaborate, the regional military governor likely thought that inviting civilians to attend an award ceremony for the soldiers that he decided to host inside the city would deter Russia. Yet Russia's cost-benefit analysis was different than what he expected.

From Russia's perspective, taking out those VIP military targets at the possible cost of some civilian casualties could hasten the end of the conflict, thus ultimately saving more civilians in the long run than if the conflict continued.

Moreover, observers should remember that Russia has the international legal right to strike military targets anywhere in Ukraine, while Ukraine has the international legal responsibility not to deploy military assets in civilian areas.

For whatever one might think about the morality of Russia's decision-making process, it was the regional military governor who irresponsibly assembled this legitimate target in Sumy, which he then surrounded with de facto human shields in a failed attempt to deter Russia.

The attack was also undertaken to help push Ukraine out of the rest of the neighboring Kursk Region since the targets that had assembled in Sumy were reportedly directly responsible for the invasion of Russian territory . Fully removing Ukraine's forces from Kursk is a Russian prerequisite to any cessation of hostilities .

From Ukraine's perspective, the civilian casualties caused by the collateral damage from the strike serve as the perfect pretext for rallying the West against the Russia-US talks, which takes on an even greater urgency considering the consequences that this strike had on Ukraine's operations in Kursk.

If Ukraine is soon pushed out of this entire region as a result, then Russia might expand its counteroffensive into Sumy in order to pressure Kyiv into complying with Moscow's peace demands.

Ukraine obviously wants to prevent this, to which end it believes that rallying the West could help, especially if the media optics of the strike complicate the Russia-US talks. T

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he timing also couldn't have been more opportune for Kyiv since Putin will have to decide by Friday (April 18) whether or not to extend the lopsided“energy ceasefire” with Ukraine . If he opts against right after the Palm Sunday missile strike, then Ukraine might more easily rally the West against Russia.

Nevertheless, Trump might not be pressured to pull the US out of talks with Russia nor pass along more arms to Ukraine, at least judging by what he said on Monday.

According to Trum p,“[Zelensky is] always looking to purchase missiles. When you start a war, you got to know that you can win the war. You don't start a war against somebody that's 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.”

These aren't the words of a leader interested in further perpetuating the Ukraine conflict. With that in mind, Ukraine is unlikely to get what it wants from exploiting the incident.

That's seen in Trump choosing the middle ground of attributing what happened to some vague“mistake” instead of taking either Ukraine or Russia's side on the issue. For the time being, the peace process will, therefore, probably remain on track. But it will still likely take some time before any major agreement is reached.

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko's Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.

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