US Military On An Adapt-Or-Perish Techno-Precipice

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Transitioning to a techno-centric force presents significant challenges, particularly in autonomy, AI and the logistics required to sustain distributed air operations.

A February 2024 Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) occasional paper by Paul O'Neill and others examines the resilience of uncrewed systems in high-intensity conflicts, emphasizing their vulnerability to electronic warfare, which could result in high attrition rates. While autonomy offers some mitigation, alternative navigation methods and target recognition remain limited, affecting engagement effectiveness.

The Agile Combat Employment (ACE) doctrine represents a fundamental shift in US airpower strategy, dispersing forces across a network of smaller, scalable bases to enhance survivability against long-range missile threats. This approach, supported by robust command and control (C2) networks, aims to ensure operational flexibility even in contested environments.

However, Michael Blaser cautions in a July 2024 Proceedings article that the ACE doctrine assumes adversaries-particularly China-cannot disrupt multiple US outposts simultaneously. With AI-enhanced targeting and machine learning algorithms, China is refining its ability to detect, track and neutralize dispersed US forces, forcing a reassessment of how ACE can be synchronized with long-range fires and resilient logistics.

Sustaining operations and deterrence requires countering advances in electronic warfare, counter-space capabilities, and doctrinal misalignment among US and allied forces.

The ACE doctrine reflects a growing shift in US airpower-from centralized air bases to a dispersed, resilient network. As Miranda Priebe and colleagues note in a July 2019 RAND report, dispersing air assets complicates enemy targeting and enhances survivability. However, the logistical burden of this model, particularly for short-range fighters, poses a vulnerability.

Space capabilities must be integrated with ground-based and space-based infrastructure to sustain distributed operations. The August 2023 Comprehensive Strategy for the Space Force emphasizes the importance of resilient command, control and communications in contested environments.

These efforts align with the 2022 US National Defense Strategy , which incorporates cyber, space and non-kinetic measures to deter adversaries like China and Russia, strengthening deterrence through multinational coalitions and raising the costs of hostile actions.

While the US prioritizes space dominance, China and Russia actively develop counter-space weapons to challenge American superiority.

According to an April 2024 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report , China is integrating jamming, directed-energy weapons and cyber warfare to disrupt US and allied space assets, while Russia's focus on electronic warfare and anti-satellite (ASAT) systems like the Peresvet laser underscores its emphasis on space denial.

These developments signal a broader shift: space is no longer a sanctuary but an increasingly contested domain where adversaries aim to degrade US surveillance, communications and missile defense networks in a future conflict.

Beyond operational challenges, institutional shortcomings in integrated deterrence further complicate strategic stability. In a May 2024 publication by the US Army Command and General Staff College, David Bell argues that strategic empathy-the ability to understand the perspectives of allies and partners-is underdeveloped, leading to misaligned expectations and inefficient resource allocation.

Similarly, Phillip Pattee highlights the absence of clearly prioritized national security interests, which creates operational uncertainty and complicates synchronization across agencies and allied forces. But the US must strategically adapt its military and nuclear deterrence posture to counter China's rising military power and maintain stability in a multipolar world.