(MENAFN- Daily Forex) The USD/ZAR appears set to begin the New Year within the higher part of its monthly price range, this as global financial institutions continue to exhibit nervousness and USD centric power is seen.
The USD/ZAR is trading near the upper part of its mid-term price as the month of December concludes. The ratio of 18.78000 is now being seen, but it is a suspicious value because holiday trading is in full effect. Volumes in
Forex have been very thin since the beginning of early last week before Christmas started, the USD/ZAR was trading near the 18.22000 mark on the 20th of December. The results seen Forex displayed the past handful of days and into early next week have to be looked upon with skepticism.
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The USD/ZAR has correlated to the broad Forex market well. The buying rampage of the USD is no joke, and speculators should not bet blindly against the trend higher which has been seen since the end of September. Yet, there are signs that January may prove a potentially challenging month for speculators and choppiness should be expected. The return of full volume trading early next week will set the stage for a fast test of existing behavioral sentiment for the USD/ZAR/ZAR Under a Haze of Technical Perspective
While the USD/ZAR has certainly provided an upwards climb in December it came with a few doses of downwards momentum also being seen. The USD/ZAR was trading near the 17.6000 level on the 12th of December, this after trading around highs of 18.28000 on the 2nd of December. But by the 18th of December, when the U.S Federal Reserve released a rather hawkish sounding FOMC Statement regarding interest rates, the USD/ZAR was touching the 18.38000 ratio, and then climbed again before going into a holiday mode of light volumes.
What may be interesting for traders is the notion that the higher values being displayed now are outside of technical perspectives many speculators may have had for the USD/ZAR to accomplish. However, the thin volumes in Forex allow for moves that are not easily defined, and early trading in January often delivers a dose of reality for moves in Forex that were considered outliers during the holiday season – meaning reversals are possible. Traders may believe the USD was overbought and allow for the temptation of selling. Yet, there is a nasty three month technical chart to consider showing the climb of the USD/ZAR Trading and USD/ZAR Speculation
Light trading volumes will prevail late this week. Only next week will financial institutions return to Forex with large transactions and this will have an immediate effect on the USD/ZAR.
Retail traders are advised to be cautious early next week, particularly on Monday and Tuesday. Monitoring results and the velocity of price ranges as they get tested and settle into a comfortable realm might be the best practice. U.S jobs numbers will be published on the 10th of January and this will have an effect on the USD/ZAR too. The USD/ZAR may look overbought at its current levels, but traders who choose to fight the higher trend may find they are attempting to speculate a bit too early.
USD/ZAR Outlook for January 2025Speculative price range for USD/ZAR is 17.9300 to 18.94000
The trend higher in the USD/ZAR which is being displayed as the month of December ends is suspicious. Light holiday trading the past week has certainly helped the currency pair display values which may not make much sense when fundamentals and technical insights are given. However, the printed value of the USD/ZAR cannot be fought. Speculators are certainly welcome to bet against the trend, but they should not get overly ambitious.
Nervous sentiment which exists in financial institutions is unlikely to suddenly change in the coming weeks, meaning choppiness may prevail as large players try to create equilibrium following this holiday season. The belief that the USD/ZAR needs to be lower may be valid, but until momentum shifts and support levels begin to prove vulnerable and trading is sustained below key ratios, attitudes among traders who want to sell should remain conservative.
EURUSD Chart by TradingView
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