Weakened Russia Yields To China's Energy, Railway Desires

The railway will start from Kashi in China's Xinjiang, pass through Kyrgyzstan's Torugart Pass and Jalalabad, and end in the eastern Uzbek city of Andijan. China and Uzbekistan will build the sections within their own territories while CKU Railway Co, a joint venture set up by the three governments, will build the Kyrgyz section.

The project was first proposed in the 1990s. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a memorandum of understanding for it in 1997 but there had not been any progress since.

“Why was the CKU railway delayed for 27 years? The core reason lied in Russia,” Li Shuyong, a Henan-based writer, said in an article.“During the Cold War, the entire Central Asia was the territory of the Soviet Union. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia still controlled Central Asia.”

Li said Russia had disagreed with the CKU railway project for many years as it wanted to monopolize the transportation of Central Asia's natural resources, such as Kazakhstan's oil and Uzbekistan's cotton, to Europe. He said it's not only a matter of transit fees but also Moscow's controlling power in the region's foreign trade.

“Once the CKU railway is opened, the entire Central Asian foreign trade will no longer be monopolized by Russia. China can also bypass Russia to reach Europe via Iran, Turkey and Greece,” he said.“But why does Russia now give it a green light?”

He said since the eruption of the Ukraine war, Russia has seen rising fiscal deficits and inflation and has sought to boost energy exports to China to compensate.

“Why should China import more Russian oil and gas? Russia has to share its benefits in Central Asia with China,” Li said.“This is why a 27-year obstacle related to the CKU railway is now removed.”

A Jiangxi-based columnist said Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will build their railways in Russia's standard gauge (1,524 mm), instead of China's one (1,435 mm), as they do not have enough money to change their existing systems.

He said China didn't insist the two Central Asian nations adopt its standard as such a move could upset Russia.

Another Russian compromise with China, made by President Vladimir Putin, concerns the recent agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 via Kazakhstan, instead of Mongolia, as per Beijing's wish.

The project to build a gas pipeline project from Russia to China via Kazakhstan is underway, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with the Rossiya-24 TV channel on December 25.

“This is a project to build a gas pipeline infrastructure with capacity for 45 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, 10 bcm of it for the gasification of the northeastern regions of Kazakhstan, and 35 bcm for export to China,” he said.“The feasibility study and negotiations are now underway.”

Novak's latest comments confirmed that Moscow has given up its plan to build the Power of Siberia 2 via Mongolia.

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Shi Jiangyue, a Shanxi-based writer and a military commentator for Asia Pacific Daily, said in an article that Mongolia will not only lose hundreds of millions of US dollars in transit fees due to the rerouting but also a chance to attract infrastructure investment and stronger diplomatic ties with Russia. Shi said Mongolia should blame itself for adopting a“third neighbor strategy” or“multi-pillared foreign policy.”

In July 2022, Mongolia's Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai said the feasibility study of the Power of Siberia 2, which aims to connect Siberian gas fields to China via Mongolia, had been completed and that construction would begin in 2024.

However, Beijing opposed this arrangement as it did not want its energy supply to pass through Mongolia, which it thinks has a tendency to lean politically toward the US.

In May this year, Dauren Abayev, Kazakhstan's envoy to Russia, told Russia's TASS news agency that Kazakhstan plans to transit about 35 bcm of Russian gas to China annually.

In fact, this route had once been considered several years ago, but Russia opted against it as the Russian section in a hilly area would have led to higher construction costs.

Yong Jian is a contributor to the Asia Times. He is a Chinese journalist who specializes in Chinese technology, economy and politics.

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