Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime falls

(MENAFN) The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, which lasted for 54 years under the Assad family and 61 years under the Baath Party, came swiftly within ten days. However, while Syrians celebrate the end of the regime, they are acutely aware of the daunting challenges they face in rebuilding their country. The devastation wrought by nearly 14 years of civil war has left Syria’s economy and infrastructure in ruins, with widespread destruction of key cities like Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama. Mohammed Anwar, project director of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), highlighted the severe impact of the conflict, noting that the Syrian economy has contracted by 85%, with GDP plummeting from $67.5 billion in 2011 to just $8.98 billion in 2023. The value of the Syrian pound has similarly collapsed, from about 45-54 pounds to the dollar to over 13,000 pounds in 2023, fueling inflation and driving nearly 96% of Syrians into poverty. Before the war, Syria was ranked 127th on Transparency International's Corruption Index, but by 2023, it had fallen to 177th out of 180 countries.

Anwar pointed out that while Syria’s interim government, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, plans to adopt a free-market economy, the road to rebuilding an effective and transparent bureaucracy is long and requires comprehensive reforms in human resources, legal systems, accountability mechanisms, and infrastructure. In addition to economic hardship, Syria's oil production has also plummeted. Production has fallen from 385,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 to just 40,000 bpd in 2023. Unlike oil-rich Libya, Syria’s oil infrastructure is concentrated in Kurdish-controlled areas, and the country lacks a robust national economy with shared interests across different factions, complicating recovery efforts.

The economic recovery will depend on building a new legislative framework, attracting investment, and rebuilding infrastructure, with a focus on maintaining public order and peace. The challenges Syria faces are more severe than those faced by Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, given the destruction of infrastructure and lack of a unified economic system. Unlike Libya, where the economy depended on oil and gas, Syria’s lack of a national infrastructure and economic interdependence between factions will slow its recovery. Despite these challenges, there is hope that international support, particularly from Western companies, may aid in Syria's reconstruction. While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has not expressed a clear interest in intervening, as a businessman, he may see an opportunity for U.S. companies in Syria, potentially leading to the suspension of the Caesar Act and other sanctions.
In summary, while the fall of the Assad regime opens doors for reconstruction, Syria faces colossal economic and political challenges. However, the right investments, legal reforms, and international partnerships could help reshape the country’s economy in the coming years.

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