Recent advances lead to shift in control of various regions in Syria

(MENAFN) The recent advances of Sunni rebels and the failure of the Syrian regime's army to effectively respond have led to a shift in the control of various regions in Syria, with different religious groups seeking to maintain control over their areas. From Israel's perspective, these developments could be seen as a positive outcome. Syrian rebels declared that they have taken control of Quneitra, a province bordering Israel. While Israel had previously interacted with these villages by providing medical aid to the wounded during the civil war, there is concern that Sunni jihadist factions could seize control of the area from local villagers. As a result, Israel is preparing for potential changes in the situation.

Behind the scenes, the dynamics are shifting. Two main rebel groups, supported by the Turkish army and President Erdogan, are facing off against U.S. efforts to quietly counter Turkey's influence in northern Syria, while also aiming to curb Iran's control over pro-Shiite militias along the Euphrates River. The U.S. is working to keep Erdogan from allowing rebel groups to advance toward the Golan Heights while also continuing to support the Kurds, who have been a longstanding ally to the U.S. From Israel’s point of view, the rebel control of Daraa, a southwestern region that borders Israel, is seen as a positive strategic development. The rebels in the area are largely local Sunni and Druze villagers, with whom Israel had good relations during the civil war. It is assumed they will avoid actions that could provoke Israel. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime, under a Russian-Syrian arrangement, had controlled the area to prevent operations against Israel. However, recent reports suggest that Russian military influence in the region has diminished, and local rebels, mostly non-jihadist, are now in control.

Israel must be prepared for a potential refugee crisis if the Sunni rebels move closer to Damascus, which could lead to a significant flow of refugees toward the Israeli border, as seen in the past. While no immediate threat from refugees or jihadist groups is present, the situation remains fluid, and Israel is ready to address any developments. Though the current situation appears favorable from Israel’s perspective, the rapid changes in Syria and the ongoing influence of Iran and Turkey make the situation unpredictable. Following the October 7 attack, Israel must remain vigilant, ready for any shifts that could affect its security along the Golan Heights.

MENAFN09122024000045015687ID1108970544