China's Triple-Island Mystery Carrier Shakes Up Naval Battlefield

While the report says the ship's operator and specific mission remain unclear, its presence underscores China's expanding naval capabilities and strategic ambitions, particularly in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

Going deeper into the history and details of China's mysterious new carrier, Rin Sakurai says in an article published in The Aviationist last month that the design may stem from a Chinese government vessel requirement that has circulated online since 2022.

Sakurai says the tender specifies the vessel to be 200 meters long, 25 meters wide at the flight deck, and 15,000 tons in displacement. It also stipulates that the vessel must reach a minimum speed of 16 knots, have a range of 5,000 nautical miles at 12 knots, and maintain at-sea endurance for 40 days.

While Sakurai says the ship's specific mission remains ambiguous, he mentions that it likely serves both civilian and military purposes. He points out that China's new carrier, designed like an amphibious assault ship, could deploy drones and helicopters for scientific research while being capable of military operations if necessary. He says this dual-use trend is common, with civilian ships often involved in military activities.

This is not the first time China has built a specialized vessel that could be used for drone operations. In May 2024, Asia Times reported that China had launched the world's first dedicated drone aircraft carrier, marking a significant shift in naval power projection, built at the Jiangsu Dayang Marine shipyard on the Yangtze River.

Unlike traditional aircraft carriers, this drone carrier is smaller and features a wide-spaced catamaran hull with a low flight deck designed to support large fixed-wing UAVs. The ship's design allows for cost-effective unmanned aerial operations, potentially transforming naval warfare by reducing reliance on manned aircraft.

This innovation aligns with China's strategy to enhance its military capabilities in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, areas of strategic importance. The vessel's ability to operate drones at sea offers substantial power projection at a fraction of the cost of traditional carriers, highlighting China's commitment to modernizing its naval fleet and maintaining a competitive edge in maritime conflicts.

However, China may require bigger vessels capable of carrying larger drones with more range and payload to support operations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.

In line with that possible requirement, Asia Times
mentioned
in October 2024 that China had unveiled its first known tiltrotor drone, the UR6000, designed to enhance military logistics and surveillance operations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

The prototype, developed by United Aircraft, was revealed in October 2024 at the Wuhu Aviation Industrial Park in Anhui province. Initially presented at the Singapore Airshow earlier this year, the drone is expected to be certified by 2027.

The UR6000, with a maximum takeoff weight of 6,100 kilograms and a payload capacity of 2,000 kilograms, combines a helicopter's vertical takeoff capability with an airplane's forward flight ability, allowing for higher speeds.

Such a drone can perform resupply operations during a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Following China's establishment of a beachhead in southern Taiwan and surrounding Pingtung Airbase with airborne forces, UR6000 drones can fly from China's Type 76 amphibious assault ships or specialized drone carriers to support offensives to take Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung.

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China's new carrier may also be a light carrier whose construction and deployment follow the dispersion principle for survivability instead of concentrating so much capability on a few potentially vulnerable ships.

Aside from the UR6000, China's new stealth fighters may operate from its new carrier. In July 2024, Asia Times
reported
that China is rapidly advancing its airpower by deploying the J-31B stealth fighter developed by Shenyang Aircraft Industry Group.

Unveiled in late June 2024, the J-31B is designed for carrier operations and is expected to be deployed on China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian. This fifth-generation fighter jet, an upgrade from the J-15, features advanced stealth capabilities, making it more challenging to detect by radar.

The J-31B has side weapon bays capable of carrying two missiles each, enhancing its combat capabilities. The Fujian, equipped with an electromagnetic catapult, allows the J-31B to carry more fuel and weapons, thus expanding its operational range. This development aligns with China's strategic ambitions to bolster its air and sea power, particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

However, light carriers may have some significant limitations. They may suffer an“offense-defense dilemma” wherein committing more aircraft to an attack leaves the carrier vulnerable, while retaining more aircraft for defense decreases attack power. Also, light carriers are just as vulnerable as larger carriers to anti-ship missiles, mines, and submarines.

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