Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Shows Iran A Paper Tiger

The ceasefire breaks the active“military links between Hezbollah and Hamas-as the former had previously committed to keep attacking Israel until there was a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip,” said Jonathan Panikoff,
Middle East security expert at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank.

It means that“Tehran has seen its deterrence decline,” Panikoff said.“Iran is probably quietly supportive of the deal, concerned that pushing Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to oppose it would risk continuing Israeli strikes.”

But will the ceasefire be enough for Netanyahu, given his concern about Iran and its nuclear program? Perhaps not.

“That threat has always been my top priority and is even more so today, when you hear Iran's leaders state over and over again their intention to obtain nuclear weapons,” the Israeli prime minister said in a televised victory speech on Tuesday.“For me, removing that threat is the most important mission to ensure the existence and future of the State of Israel.”

Israel had already signaled that Iran's nuclear program was in its sights. Earlier in November, Israel's defense ministry announced that on October 26 it had hit key air defense targets that had been guarding a major Iranian nuclear facility.

The raids eliminated the last three Russian-provided surface-to-air S-300 air defense rockets in Iran's possession.

US President Joe Biden, now a lame duck with Donald Trump's re-election earlier this month, characterized the ceasefire as a step toward“a vision for the future of a Middle East where it is at peace.”

He aimed a mild rebuke at Netanyahu over Israel's lack of a day-after peace plan to end years of conflicts between Israel and the Palestinians.“Israel has been bold on the battlefield,” Biden said.“Now Israel must be bold to create a coherent strategy that will secure Israel's long-term safety and advance peace.”

The strategy must include“a future where Palestinians have a state of their own.” That may be beyond the outgoing president's reach, however. Long before and during this war, Netanyahu rejected the so-called“two-state solution” to the Palestinian conflict.

Biden had spent weeks trying to arrange Israel-Palestinian ceasefire talks but failed. On that score, Netanyahu has indicated that Israel must stay in parts of a demilitarized Gaza Strip for an indefinite period. Beleaguered Hamas has demanded Israel leave the territory as part of any ceasefire accord.

So the Gaza war rumbles on, as does a parallel lower-intensity battle in the West Bank. On Wednesday, Israeli intelligence officials said it uncovered a cache of weapons it said Iran had smuggled into the West Bank while Israeli soldiers carried out raids, which have become habitual in towns and villages nominally under the authority of the Palestinian National Authority.

The PNA is based in the city of Ramallah and has been silent on the Lebanon ceasefire.

It's likely the next chapter will fall to Trump. Israeli settlers, whose ever-growing West Bank communities have made an actual land-for-peace deal all but impossible, are hoping that Trump's January 20 arrival to power will open the way to some sort of annexation of the territory.

“We have high hopes. We're even buoyant to a certain extent,” said Yisrael Medad, a settler activist who supports Israeli absorption of the West Bank. He thinks Trump's support among religious Evangelicals in the US might sway him; he views Israel as a Biblical/historical inheritance.“Even if the Byzantines, the Romans, the Mameluks and Ottomans ruled it, it was our land,” Medad said in a Reuters interview.

Trump has displayed no inclination toward reviving the two-state formula, which had its heyday as a proposal more than four decades ago. Trump's only comment on the Gaza war has been to advise Netanyahu to end it quickly.

Sign up for one of our free newsletters

• The Daily Report Start your day right with Asia Times' top stories
• AT Weekly Report A weekly roundup of Asia Times' most-read stories

During his previous 2017-2021 term, Trump formulated the so-called Abraham Accords based on the idea that the best way to stabilize the Middle East was to persuade Arab countries to make peace with Israel and put aside the Palestinian issue for a while.

In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, both Persian Gulf mini-states fearful of Iranian military power, signed the accord. Morocco later joined. By 2023, with Biden in the White House, Saudi Arabia appeared to be ready join, partly in exchange for US military weaponry and possible defense agreements in case war with Iran broke out. The Gaza war shelved Saudi Arabia's potential entry into the accord.

Earlier this month, Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, accused Israel of committing“collective genocide” in Gaza and said Israel must“respect the sovereignty” of Iran and“not to violate its lands.”

However, analysts were not persuaded that bin Salman's words reflected a rejection of the Abraham Accords. Once the fever of the Gaza war ends, he would likely recognize Israel, they suggested.

His harsh words, rather, reflected both public anger in Saudi Arabia over the Gaza bloodletting and bin Salman's predilection for playing multiple sides in international gamesmanship.

Bin Salman, for instance, declined Biden's request to pump more crude oil and thus reduce US energy costs, yet his country also purchases 80% of its weapons from the US and has been negotiating a security deal with Washington to go into effect once the Gaza war ends.

The only hang-up is an old one: Bin Salman is insisting that such an accord accompany steps toward a revival of the dormant two-state solution.

Already have an account? Sign i Sign up here to comment on Asia Times stories OR

Thank you for registering!

An account was already registered with this email. Please check your inbox for an authentication link.

• Click to share on X (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)
• Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
• Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window)
• Click to print (Opens in new window)