Quad To Survive And Thrive After Biden, Kishida

(MENAFN- Asia Times) The fourth in-person Quad leaders' summit was held in Wilmington, Delaware, the hometown of US President Joe Biden, on September 21, 2024 amid uncertainty about the grouping's future.

The meeting marked the end of a certain era as the last gathering to include outgoing US President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Quad partners agreed that the US and India would swap host years, which enables Biden to host the summit in his final year as president and India to host in 2025, providing an opportunity for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to host Quad leaders.

Another practical reason for holding the Quad in the US was that it provided a last opportunity for Kishida to attend before the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election on September 27 this year.

Kishida, who is not running for re-election, is attending his last diplomatic function as prime minister, together with Modi and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, at the United Nations General Assembly.

The Wilmington Declaration further cements the Quad's institutionalization efforts and visibility as a provider of public goods in the Indo-Pacific. The declaration introduced six new initiatives:

• The Quad Cancer Moonshot Initiative seeks to lower the Indo-Pacific region's cancer death toll. Based on technologies pioneered in Queensland, Australia, the Quad countries will extend treatment choices and care, enhance access to tests, and encourage more HPV vaccines to fight cervical cancer, potentially saving the lives of millions of women.

• Increasing training and strengthening current capacities to guarantee that regional partners can continue strengthening their capacity to thwart illegal marine operations through the extension of the Quad Indo-Pacific Partnership for Marine Domain Awareness (IPMDA).

• The Indo-Pacific Logistics Network Pilot aims to improve the effectiveness, efficiency, and timeliness of humanitarian aid and the response to natural catastrophes in the Indo-Pacific region by bringing together Quad partners to develop a cooperative Quad airlift capacity.

• The first Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission will be launched in 2025 as part of the Quad Coast Guard Cooperation to enhance maritime safety and interoperability amongst Quad coast guard units.

• Furthermore, in collaboration with governments in Southeast and South Asia as well as Pacific island states, the Quad will establish an Indo-Pacific marine training program – MAITRI, which means“friendship” in Sanskrit. Currently, Quad member states provide separate training for these nations, including exercises in maritime rescue and illegal fishing surveillance. By synchronizing the exercises to prevent overlap, the planned endeavor seeks to increase their efficacy. India will be hosting the inaugural MAITRI workshop in 2025.

• A Quad maritime legal dialogue will support efforts to uphold the rules-based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific.

The Delaware Summit commemorated the Quad's 20th anniversary. As an ad hoc body, the Quad was established in 2004 to coordinate disaster response in the wake of the Indian Ocean tsunami.

Then-prime minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, suggested establishing the meeting as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue in 2007. However, the format did not flourish because several participants were afraid of upsetting China.

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Abe, however, never gave up on the Quad. In late 2017, on the margins of the ASEAN Summit in Manila, the four original Quad countries reaffirmed their commitment to the Quad framework.

Although they issued separate press releases outlining distinct regional goals, the Quad gained momentum. In 2019, they held their first ministerial-level meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

During the Biden-Kishida era, the Quad further institutionalized itself. In March 2021, the Quad leaders held their first virtual Leaders' Summit. This marked a shift from mere dialogue to action. They committed to delivering one billion Covid-19 vaccines to the Indo-Pacific and established working groups on climate change and critical technologies.

While upcoming US and Japan elections may bring new leadership dynamics, the Quad format will likely endure. To paraphrase Mira Rapp-Hooper, White House senior director for East Asia and Oceania,“The grouping of the major maritime democracies represents not any one administration or set of views but rather a set of enduring interests shared by all four countries.”

In Japan, the Quad carries both Abe's and Kishida's legacies. The Quad agenda and Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy are widely embraced within the LDP.

In the US, it is likely, if elected president, that Kamala Harris will continue the Biden administration's approach to the Quad. If Donald Trump wins, it is also likely that his government will continue the format, which he embraced as president in 2017.

Second, his administration renamed the US Pacific Command in 2018 to the US Indo-Pacific Command in recognition of the increasing connectivity between the Indian and Pacific oceans. Finally, the Trump administration issued the US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific in 2018.

Erik Lenhart holds an MA in political science from Charles University and is a former Deputy Chief of the Mission of the Slovak Republic in Tokyo.

Michael Tkacik holds a PhD from the University of Maryland and a JD from Duke University. Tkacik's current research interests include the implications of China's rise, China's behavior in the South China Sea, and nuclear weapons policy across Asia. He is a professor of government and director of the School of Honors at Stephen F Austin State University in Texas.

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