ExxonMobil expects global oil demand to continue until 2050, casting doubt on net zero targets
Date
8/27/2024 5:36:58 AM
(MENAFN) ExxonMobil Corp, one of the largest oil companies in the world, forecasts that global oil demand will remain at its current levels or potentially increase until 2050, posing significant challenges to achieving the global goal of net zero carbon emissions by mid-century. According to ExxonMobil's annual report, global demand for oil is expected to stay above 100 million barrels per day through 2050, driven largely by industrial uses such as plastics production and heavy transport. This projection contrasts sharply with the International energy Agency’s (IEA) position, which emphasizes that in order to limit the global temperature rise to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, oil demand must be drastically reduced by 75%, to just 24 million barrels per day by 2050.
Chris Birdsall, ExxonMobil's chief economics and energy officer, pointed out the disparity between the company's outlook and the IEA's recommendations, stating that both organizations agree that the world is not currently on a path to achieve net zero emissions. Birdsall stressed the importance of acknowledging the reality of global energy trends, warning against unrealistic expectations. ExxonMobil's report highlights a sobering reality where the demand for oil remains robust, fueled by essential sectors that are less easily decarbonized, despite growing global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources.
However, ExxonMobil does anticipate a decline in global carbon emissions starting by 2030, driven by the increasing adoption of renewable energy. The company projects a 25% reduction in emissions by 2050. Despite this optimistic view on the growth of renewables, the reduction is likely insufficient to substantially mitigate the impacts of climate change. This forecast underscores the complexities and challenges that lie ahead as the world grapples with balancing energy demand with the urgent need to address climate change, raising concerns about whether current efforts will be enough to meet critical climate targets.
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