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Poll shows Harris beating Trump in main states
(MENAFN) A recent poll conducted by the Siena College Research Institute and reported by The New York Times reveals that United States Vice President Kamala Harris holds a significant lead over former President Donald Trump in crucial swing states. The survey, conducted from August 5 to 9, covers Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and shows Harris ahead of Trump by a margin of 50 percent to 46 percent across these states.
This poll, which surveyed nearly 2,000 likely voters, comes on the heels of Harris announcing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Historically, these states have been pivotal in presidential elections. They leaned Democratic from 1992 until 2016 when Trump broke the trend by winning all three. President Joe Biden managed to reclaim these Rust Belt states in the 2020 election, albeit with very narrow victories.
According to the poll, Harris appears to be in a strong position to secure wins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which collectively represent a significant portion of the electoral votes needed for a presidential victory. However, the methodology of the poll raises questions about the accuracy of these results.
For instance, the poll indicates that 45% of respondents in Michigan voted for Biden in 2020, compared to 39 percent for Trump. In reality, Biden won Michigan by less than three percentage points, not the six suggested by the poll. Similar discrepancies are observed in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the poll's data shows larger margins for Biden than what was achieved in the actual 2020 election results.
These differences highlight the potential for a closer race than the poll may suggest. While Harris's lead is notable, the actual electoral contest in these critical states could be more competitive, reflecting the tight margins that characterized past elections in the region.
This poll, which surveyed nearly 2,000 likely voters, comes on the heels of Harris announcing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Historically, these states have been pivotal in presidential elections. They leaned Democratic from 1992 until 2016 when Trump broke the trend by winning all three. President Joe Biden managed to reclaim these Rust Belt states in the 2020 election, albeit with very narrow victories.
According to the poll, Harris appears to be in a strong position to secure wins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which collectively represent a significant portion of the electoral votes needed for a presidential victory. However, the methodology of the poll raises questions about the accuracy of these results.
For instance, the poll indicates that 45% of respondents in Michigan voted for Biden in 2020, compared to 39 percent for Trump. In reality, Biden won Michigan by less than three percentage points, not the six suggested by the poll. Similar discrepancies are observed in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the poll's data shows larger margins for Biden than what was achieved in the actual 2020 election results.
These differences highlight the potential for a closer race than the poll may suggest. While Harris's lead is notable, the actual electoral contest in these critical states could be more competitive, reflecting the tight margins that characterized past elections in the region.
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