Hezbollah Brandishing Drones To Deter An Israel War

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However, this also exposes Lebanon to heightened risks, with each new weapon unveiled by Hezbollah potentially escalating the conflict.

Mutual deterrence

Confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah over the years have been marked by tit-for-tat attempts to establish mutual deterrence. In recent months, Hezbollah has shot down Israeli drones and bombed Israeli military bases .

Since October 2023, Israel has conducted preemptive and retaliatory strikes in Lebanon, targeting members of Hamas and Hezbollah, especially in southern Lebanon. In June, Israel targeted Taleb Sami Abdallah , a key Hezbollah commander on the Lebanese-Israeli front.

Following this attack, Hezbollah intensified its offensive , launching rockets that caused wildfires in Israel. The weekend that followed remained relatively calm due to Eid al-Adha celebrations .

Part of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's speech following the armed group's release of drone footage over parts of northern Israel.

Israel has also taken measures to deter Hezbollah attacks by disrupting the use of GPS navigation and location-based apps , such as Google Maps, out of security concerns, aimed at countering drones, missiles and other technologies used by Hezbollah and other armed groups. This demonstrates Israel's determination to maintain its technological superiority and develop countermeasures against emerging threats.

However, while groups like Hezbollah have increasingly adopted advanced technology, they also rely on more rudimentary tactics to evade detection. Nasrallah once described Hezbollah's use of such tactics in an interview with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

The Iron Dome

Hezbollah has significantly bolstered its military and technological arsenal since its last war with Israel in 2006, and would likely pose a larger threat to Israel's military in a broader confrontation.

Hezbollah recently claimed to have destroyed an Iron Dome battery , although the Israeli military said it was unaware of any damage to its launchers.

Iron Dome is designed to defend Israel from short-range missiles and drones launched by armed groups. It consists of batteries located throughout the country and uses radar to track incoming targets and interceptor missiles to destroy them.

While Israel has touted Iron Dome's interception rate, US officials have said the system could be overwhelmed in an all-out war with Hezbollah.

Psychological warfare

Hezbollah is well aware that Israel is unlikely to show restraint in pursuit of its political and military goals.

This is as evidenced by the bombardment of Gaza and Israeli military tactics like the Dahiya Doctrine , which calls for the wide-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure. Israeli airstrikes and threats of invasion have already forced around 95,000 people to flee southern Lebanon.

By provoking Israel, Hezbollah demonstrates its readiness to challenge it head-on. The question remains: does Hezbollah truly possess this capability or is it bluffing?

In his speech, Nasrallah emphasized the group has not yet revealed the full extent of its capabilities and hinted at further actions to come. His comments form part of Hezbollah's strategy in the psychological war with Israel, and the current escalation represents a significant development.

Hezbollah is attempting to dictate the pace of the clashes, frustrating the population in northern Israel by giving the impression that Hezbollah is controlling the situation and imposing its conditions on the area.

This psychological war appears to be having a real impact, causing Israeli leaders to avoid disproportionate responses and prompting growing concern among Israelis about their government's inability to control the situation. More than 96,000 Israelis have fled the north since October 2023.