Goldman Sachs expects oil market fall, Brent prices rise amid robust consumer demand

(MENAFN) Goldman Sachs projects that robust consumer spending and high summer demand will drive the oil market into a deficit of 1.3 million barrels per day in the third quarter, pushing Brent crude prices to around USD86 per barrel. Despite a slight downward revision in their 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 0.2 million barrels per day to 1.25 million barrels per day, the bank remains optimistic about strong demand, primarily fueled by a resurgence in jet fuel consumption.

In a note released on Sunday, Goldman Sachs attributed the modest reduction in demand growth for 2024 to lower-than-expected demand from China. This reduction is counterbalanced by an anticipated decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day in non-OPEC supply, coupled with potential strategic purchases for the US oil reserve. As of early Monday trading, Brent crude futures and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were near USD79.85 and USD75.74 per barrel, respectively.

Goldman Sachs maintains its average price forecast for Brent at USD84 and for WTI at USD79 per barrel for 2024. The bank's projected Brent price range remains between USD75 and USD90 per barrel, while its 2025 average price forecast is unchanged at USD82 per barrel. This outlook underscores the bank's confidence in the sustained strength of the oil market driven by consumer demand and strategic supply adjustments. 

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