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China curbs US arms makers for selling to Taiwan Suciu mentions that military hardware advances are mostly evolutionary, building on past successes. The B-21 Raider, currently in development, is based on the successful B-2 Spirit and features a flying wing design.
He says most 6th-generation fighter designs have focused on what worked with 5th-generation aircraft, such as the F-22 and F-35, and have gone much further.
He points out that bombers such as the B-52 Stratofortress and tanks such as the M1 Abrams have been steadily upgraded. In contrast, fighter jets have not, explaining the longevity of the former platforms.
The former platforms first entered service in the 1950s and 1980s, respectively, compared to the F-22, which is slated to be replaced by the upcoming 6th-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform despite entering service only in 2005.
Concept art of the possible design for the US Air Force's future Next Generation Air Dominance stealth fighter. Image: BoeingSuciu suggests that 7th-generation fighters could be developed as a response to the capabilities of 6th-generation fighters, incorporating both their best features and additional, currently undefined capabilities to surpass previous generations.
Suciu says that 7th-generation fighters with advanced autonomous technology may raise ethical, moral and legal concerns that society needs to address.
He says that producing 7th-generation fighters will be a Western multinational collaboration due to the costs involved, the need for standard requirements and economic necessity to maximize exports to defray costs.
Suciu points out that while technology is rapidly increasing, allowing materials to be printed and computer-aided design (CAD) can also speed up development – though cost will remain a factor.
However, in a TNI article this month , Brandon Weichert argues that 6th and 7th-generation fighters are a significant waste of resources, suggesting that the US military should prioritize simpler, more cost-effective unmanned systems and space-based weapons platforms, which are more aligned with future strategic needs.
Weichert emphasizes the economic wastefulness of investing in overly complex and expensive warplanes, which may hinder the US' military competitiveness in crucial areas like space.
For example, he notes the US Air Force's retirement of the more advanced F-22 Raptor in favor of the F-35, which is less suitable for air superiority missions.
He believes that instead of investing in redundant warplanes, the US should prioritize the development of space-based weapons and focus on creating less complex, easier-to-mass-produce systems that can outmaneuver, outrun and swarm enemy targets .
Considering an evolutionary approach to military hardware and the risks associated with technological leapfrogging, the US Air Force is prioritizing the development of newer, more combat-capable versions of the F-22 Raptor jets over the older Block 20 jets, as reported by Breaking Defense in March 2024 .
US Air Force acquisition boss Andrew Hunter called the F-22 the“foundation” of airpower amidst intensifying competition with China and emphasized its vital role until the NGAD comes online.
Breaking Defense mentions
that the US Air Force initially planned to retire 32 older F-22s but the US Congress blocked the move, leading to a discussion about reallocating funds for modernization. Hunter suggested using the funds to modernize other Raptors in the fleet.
Task and Purpose reported this month that the F-22 fleet is scheduled for a $22 billion upgrade over the next decade, potentially keeping the aircraft in service until the 2040s.
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Task and Purpose says the F-22 will receive new aviation systems including advanced avionics such as helmet-mounted sights and cutting-edge data links. Further upgrades will include stealthy external fuel tanks, the top-secret AIM-260 air-to-air missile, infrared sensor pods and a new electronic warfare suite.
Establishing air superiority over the Taiwan Strait is critical for US defense of the self-governing island at a time China is deploying increasing numbers of its J-20 stealth fighters .
China's J-20 fighters fly in formation at an air show. Image: China DailyThe stealthy fuel tanks would mitigate the F-22's range disadvantage over the Taiwan Strait while the new infrared sensor pods aim to preserve the aircraft's first-look, first-shot capability. The latest electronic warfare suite, meanwhile, would increase the F-22's survivability against enemy missiles.
Task and Purpose notes that 142 F-22s will get these upgrades, with those kits addressing corrosion, reducing maintenance hours, increasing safety and providing urgent response requirements.
While 142 upgraded F-22s may not seem like much against China's growing 5th-generation fighter fleet, the AIM-260 missile, which has active radar homing, an estimated Mach 5 speed and a 200-400 kilometer range, could be a decisive edge.
However, Task and Purpose points out that upgrading these F-22s will take considerable time and expend resources that could be used to develop a more capable fighter. It also notes concerns that the F-22 could be rendered obsolete for its mission by the time the upgrades are finished.
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