Us Drone Swarm Program Could Redefine Modern War

The drone was launched from Eglin Air Base in Florida and
successfully carried
out aerial combat tasks using AI-driven software. The tests were conducted as part of a
more significant effort to develop and mature autonomcapabilities that rely on AI-driven algorithms. These capabilities are now being moved from laboratory environments to operational settings.

The USAF Research Laboratory developed the algorithms used in the tests
as part of the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, a critical aspect of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) modernization initiative.

The tests also established a multi-layer safety framework, solving
a tactically
relevant challenge during airborne operations that could accelerate the development of drone swarms.

In February 2023,
Asia Times reported on
theAutonomMulti-Domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms (AMASS)
project. The project aims to create autonomdrone swarms launched from sea, air, and land to overpower an adversary's air defenses.

The project's goal is to develop the ability to command thousands of autonomdrones to destroy an enemy's defenses, including air defenses, artillery, missile launchers, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms.

The AMASS project
explores using swarms-of-swarms to conduct military operations in highly contested environments with low-cost swarms equipped with diverse sensors and kinetic and non-kinetic effectors. The AMASS project award is expected to be given to a single private contractor.

These developments underscore the potential tactical and operational advantages
of
drone swarms, enabling the development of new operational concepts.

In a March 2021 Forbes article , David Hambling mentions that one of the standout features that make drone swarms so formidable in combat is their decentralized operation, letting them adapt on the fly.
Hambling notes that drone
swarms can perform diverse roles such as surveillance or direct assault, with their coordination enhancing their killing power and resilience against countermeasures.

He notes that drone swarms fit into modern warfighting concepts but pose challenges for existing defense systems due to their complexity and adaptability. The goal is to overwhelm the enemy with
weapons
and sensor platforms, but today's systems are not built for this.

Furthermore,
theDefense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA)
“Mosaic Warfare” operational concept
aims to overwhelm adversaries by deploying a highly complex, decentralized
and adaptive force composed of variweapon and sensor platforms designed to operate synergistically across multiple domains, thereby turning complexity into an asymmetric advantage.

Mosaic Warfare can be used in a ground battle
by sending an unmanned aerial vehicle or ground robot ahead of the main battle force. The robot can spot an enemy tank and relay its coordinates to a non-line-of-sight strike system in the rear. Including aircraft makes it more complex and can overwhelm the opponent's decision-making.

Mosaic Warfare in the maritime domain adds complexity as it involves air, land, sea and undersea environments. Combatant commanders must mix and match assets across services while expendability is
critical. However, creating these systems within systems requires linking them together, which poses significant challenges.

Those projects and emerging operational concepts may tie into more extensive use of drone swarm strategies for a decisive effect in a potential Taiwan Strait crisis.

In May 2022, Asia Times reported
that
the

The simulations revealed that drone swarms using a distributed laser data-sharing network were crucial in ensuring avictory by potentially overcoming China's anti-access/area denial capabilities.

Autonomdrone swarms could work with stealthy manned platforms such as F-35 and F-22 to hit Chinese warships, aircraft and missile batteries. The networked drones would increase situational awareness and target acquisition capabilities while flooding enemy radar scopes with multiple targets.

However, there are concerns regarding the maturity of the technology and potential vulnerabilities such as Russian and Chinese electronic warfare capabilities, cyberattacks and bandwidth limitations.

At the same time, drone swarms
pose
significant
ethical and legal challenges.
Irving Lachow, in a February 2017 Bulletin of Atomic Scientists article ,
argues that public concern regarding the risks of lethal autonomweapon systems, especially swarms, is exaggerated.

Lachow says while these systems can learn and evolve, their
programming strictly dictates their behavior and ensuring their compliance with international humanitarian law is complex.
He notes that defensive swarms may be the only
adequate
protection against attacking swarms, leading to a potential drone arms race.

Lachow says that the ultimate question is whether lethal autonomweapon systems should be banned, regulated or allowed without restraint, but points out difficult questions regarding
when a ban should occur, how it should be applied, and who will enforce it.

He notes that if
regulation is the path forward, similar questions arise about what regulations should be applied, who will decide on them and what the consequences should be for violators.