How Prigozhin's Demise Will Impact Africa's Stability

It has also promoted anti-neo-colonial figures, such as Kemi Seba (also known as Capo Chichi). Currently based in Moscow, Seba has gained celebrity stathrough his social media presence and TV talk shows which frequently target French foreign policy.

This has helped to popularize and boost anti-French sentiment among francophone countries in West Africa. France has arguably continued a neo-colonial approach to West Africa and refused to accept that the era of its“Francafrique” sphere of influence is over, which has exacerbated instabilities across the region.

For instance, the persistence of French control of the CFA Franc , the common currency used among former French colonies, gave it control over their economies and political affairs.

The Wagner Group's involvement in West Africa furthers Russian interests by challenging French dominance. The group has done this through the reportedly now-defunct InteResearch Agency , known as“Russia's troll farm.” This organization orchestrated disinformation campaigns on social media to spread anti-colonial sentiments.

By doing this, it reinforced the already strong anti-French sentiments in the Sahel region to discredit France and position Russia as a better alternative. The InteResearch Agency was directly associated with the Wagner Group via Prigozhin as its founder and owner.

Beyond propping up failed and failing states, the Wagner Group has faced accusations of targeting civilians and committing severe human rights violations in Mali and CAR .

In addition to its military activities, the Wagner Group is estimated to have garnered more than US$20 billion from its diverse business dealings, which range from gold mining in Sudan to diamond extraction in CAR , where it is also reported to be heavily invested in the forestry and timber business .

Since mercenaries tend to thrive in conflicts, they are likely to profit by prolonging the conflicts they become involved in. So the activities of a PMC such as Wagner can exacerbate conflicts by prolonging hostilities, as witnessed in Libya, Mozambique and CAR.

For instance , small raids against villages and police units in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, where Wagner groups were deployed, escalated into a full-scale terrorist insurgency linked to the Islamic State's Central African Province .

In Libya, meanwhile, Wagner Group units first appeared in 2018 , according to a submission to the UK parliament, ostensibly to provide technical support for repairing and maintaining armored vehicles for the Libyan National Army. Since then, the scope of their operations has expanded with increased funding from Russia and the fighting continues.

The involvement of Wagner or other PMCs in these countries almost inevitably leads to the erosion of sovereignty as unstable governments become dependent on the mercenaries for their survival.

This situation may cause local leaders to favor the interests of the PMCs, reinforcing their roles as puppet leaders while causing mass exploitation of resources and leading to environmental degradation, poverty, grievances and intensified conflicts – all of which create further demand for mercenary services.

As long as certain African countries and their leadership remain plagued by corruption, extended terms in office, election manipulations, neo-colonial influences, and looting of the national treasury, coups will remain a persistent concern. Military coups are on the rise again particularly in West Africa , stimulating an increased demand for mercenary services.

As such, Prigozhin's death is unlikely to significantly affect the Wagner Group's African operations. The more pertinent question is what the new leadership will look like and whether it will be more directly state-controlled.

But the use of mercenary companies such as the Wagner Group to help unstable or illegitimate governments hold onto power will not bring sustainable peace. Instead, dialogue, transitional governments reflecting people's desires, the rule of law, and genuine democracy are essential. Otherwise, Africans will keep demanding positive change by all means.

To maintain popular support in an era of instability, African leaders must be seen to act in their people's best interests. They must heed popular demands to halt misrule and the misuse of African resources across the continent.

Olumba E Ezenwa is Doctoral Research Fellow, Conflict, Violence, & Terrorism Research Centre, Royal Holloway University of London and Idris Mohammed is Conflict Researcher, Department of Mass Communication, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .