Megawati Making Moves To Tilt Indonesia's Election

Then the vice president, Megawati had assumed the presidency in 2001 after the erratic Abdurrahman Wahid was impeached by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), the top law-making body, for trying to dissolve the legislature.

The Democrats acknowledge being taken aback when chairman Harimurti, 44, a former army officer, appeared on a list of candidates PDI-P was considering for Pranowo's running mate, despite widespread doubts about what he will bring to the ticket.

“For a long time, there had been no formal meeting (between the two parties),” one senior Democrat told Asia Times.“They shut down communications. Now they are trying to turn around and we were very surprised. We wanted to know 'Was it with Mega's approval?'”

Initially, he said,“we tried to see this as part of their president's machinations – and that is to disable the (opposition) coalition,” which has made clear its aim is to break up what it calls the existing“oligarchic structure.”

In any event, the Democrats responded immediately by arranging a meeting between party secretary-general Teuku Riefky Harsya and his PDI-P counterpart, Hasto Kristiyanto, Megawati's closest retainer who only acts with her explicit approval.

As the Democrat source explained before the Maharani-Harimurti meeting:“Our party is clear. We are still in the coalition with Anies, but we are open to communications with Prabowo and Ganjar.” Sitindaon repeated that:“The Democrats are still loyal to the coalition it helped establish.”

PDI-P's overtures will now likely force Baswedan to pick Harimurti as his running mate, instead of doing the bidding of his mentor, former vice-president Jusuf Kalla, and selecting a senior figure from the mass Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

Analysts believe that even if the vice presidency is not up for grabs, the Democrats may be tempted to settle for a return to the political mainstream and a promise of lucrative seats in any post-election Pranowo cabinet.

The Yudhoyonos have had to deal with internal rifts over the past five years with presidential chief of staff Moeldoko leading a revolt among members unhappy at being cast into the political wilderness because of the Megawati-Yudhoyono spat.

Moeldoko's role has led to speculation that Widodo has been complicit in efforts to make the Democrats more palatable to Megawati who, in leaving the negotiations to her daughter Maharani, 49, still has to agree to a face-to-face meeting with the elder Yudhoyono.

Other prospective vice-presidents on PDI-P's list include chief political minister Mahfud MD, State Enterprise Minister Erick Thahir, Tourism Minister Sandiago Uno, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil and Golkar Party chairman and economic coordinating minister Airlangga Hartarto.

Pranowo appears to have only a peripheral role in deciding his running mate, another telling sign of his subservience to Megawati and her inner circle where the succession issue has become another major talking point behind the scenes.

Maharani and reclusive half-brother Prananda Prabowo, 53, are locked in a struggle over who will eventually replace Megawati. Adding to the intrigue are billboards in Bali showing Prananda, Megawati and her father, founding president Sukarno -but no Maharani.

The third-ranked Golkar Party has yet to decide whether to join the Pranowo or Prabowo alliances, but one senior member says the late president Suharto's political machine is in a“twilight zone” as dissidents seek to oust Hartarto from the leadership and stem its sliding fortunes.

Possible replacements include MPR chairman Bambang Soesatyo or chief maritime minister Luhut Panjaitan. Currently head of the party's advisory council, Panjaitan is also Widodo's right-hand man and often jokingly referred to as the“minister of everything.”

While next year's presidential election will be hard fought and focused on capturing the votes of Indonesia's Muslim majority, it may be free of much of the heated rhetoric between nationalists and religious conservatives that marked the 2019 campaign.

Prabowo and Pranowo share the lead by a substantial margin in all presidential polls and, if Baswedan remains in the race, look certain to contest the second round of voting, which is expected to take place two months after the first round on February 14.

Some analysts believe the PDI-P-Democrat
reconciliation may be part of an attempt by the ruling party to attract support from opposition voters in the second round when Baswedan's conservative Muslim supporters are likely to vote for Prabowo.

So far, PDI-P's only partners are the United Development (PPP) and United Mandate (PAN) parties, the smallest in Parliament and with PPP at least in danger of failing to win the 4% of the seats in the simultaneous legislative elections required to earn DPR representation.

For now, Prabowo has the backing of the fourth-ranked National Awakening Party (PKB), often seen as the political arm of NU. But he has so far held off naming PKB leader Muhaimin Iskander, 56, as his running mate, which may be the price for the party staying the course.

Sources close to NU estimate the
East Java-born deputy House speaker
can call on the support of about half of the
NU members who openly declare themselves to be part of a claimed 80 million-strong organization that is always an important factor in any election.

Widodo's neutrality so far suggests he is trying to stave off lame-duck status in his final 16 months in office. But significant sections of his army of avid supporters have gone over to Prabowo since PDI-P's decision to oppose Israel's participation in the FIFA Under-20 football tournament.

While the resulting cancelation of the event was met with widespread disappointment in football-mad Indonesia, the deterioration in Pranowo's popularity stems from the way it has shown him
to bea Megawati mouthpiece with few ideas of his own.

He could make up lost ground in the months ahead, but it is difficult to recall a political move that has evoked so much negative commentary and appraisal among Indonesians of all stripes – and especially among younger voters.

Critics say PDI-P is increasingly a 20th-century party living in a world of its own, defined by the nationalist ideology of Sukarno, who died in 1970, three years after his removal from power in the wake of savage anti-communist bloodletting.

Even within the party, there have been suggestions that the out-of-work Widodo, a champion of Indonesia's pluralist Pancasila ideology, could be in line for the leadership once the 76-year-old Megawati is gone.

Gerindra, second behind PDI-P in national votes, is more of a genuine grassroots organization with Prabowo as a hard-working leader seeking to make it third time lucky after being beaten by Widodo in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.

While friends say his temper is still in evidence, he has played an admirable game up to now, fostering relations with influential NU clerics in the Java heartland
and
being careful not to put himself offside with either Widodo or Megawati.

Analysts believe this may be the former general's best chance yet. In an electorate where 56% of the 192 million voters are under 40, a recent Kompas poll found 32.7% of respondents between 17 and 26 favored Prabowo, well ahead of Pranowo at 24.5%.

The poll's gap closed significantly among millennials in the 27-39 age group, but Prabowo still led with 23.98% to Pranowo's 23.1%, a result that serves as a pointer to how close the race may be.

Despite being a member of PDI-P, Widodo has remained neutral so far, perhaps telling in itself given his perpetually strained relations with Megawati and rumors that he and Pranowo are not quite as close as they publicly appear.

In the end, however, it is the president's endorsement – and the power of his enduring popularity – that may make an important difference in the looming showdown between Pranowo and Prabowo, particularly in the populous battleground of Java.