Monday, 25 September 2023 10:25 GMT

IMF Managing Director Cautions Against Premature Interest Rate Hikes, Anticipates Future Cuts

(MENAFN) During the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, shared her views on central banks' interest rate hikes, emphasizing the need for caution. In response to a question posed by Anadolu, Georgieva stated that central banks have taken decisive and coordinated actions in response to rising inflation. She acknowledged that headline inflation is showing signs of tapering down, but core inflation, particularly driven by persistently high food prices, has not yet exhibited a substantial decline as expected.

Georgieva underscored the importance of central banks staying the course and refraining from prematurely reversing interest rate hikes. She highlighted that moving back on interest rates too soon could potentially exacerbate inflationary pressures and prolong the period of economic growth challenges. The IMF Managing Director recognized the efforts of central banks in combating inflation rates, citing their swift and forceful measures in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in February 2022, as well as the economic disruptions caused by the two-year-long COVID-19 pandemic.

In recent months, central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England, have embarked on a path of gradually increasing policy rates. The Fed, for instance, has raised its policy rate from 0.25 percent in January 2022 to 5.25 percent through incremental adjustments. Similarly, the ECB's policy rate has climbed to 3.25 percent from a previous level of -0.5 percent in June 2022. The Bank of England has also implemented multiple rate hikes.

However, there are concerns among some economists and institutions about the potential consequences of these interest rate hikes. They caution that persistently tightening monetary policy could lead to a global recession. The IMF's Georgieva's remarks reflect a nuanced perspective, highlighting the delicate balance central banks must strike between addressing inflationary pressures and safeguarding economic growth. She suggests that a premature withdrawal of accommodative monetary measures may pose risks to the trajectory of recovery.

As global economic conditions continue to evolve, central banks face the challenge of navigating an environment characterized by heightened inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing recovery from the pandemic-induced disruptions. The IMF's stance, as articulated by Kristalina Georgieva, urges central banks to exercise prudence and assess the long-term implications of their monetary policy decisions. The ultimate goal is to strike a balance that supports sustainable economic growth while ensuring inflation remains within desired targets.


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