(MENAFN- Trend News Agency) BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 24. Following the
second Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the realities
in the South Caucasus have changed, and this did not go unnoticed
in the West, in particular, in France. Since the end of the war,
the relations between Azerbaijan and France could be called a
roller coaster, yet it never escalated to anything extremely
serious.
For two years now, French officials have been voicing their
support for Armenia, and, sadly, this trend still continues. The
visit of the former Prime Minister of France, Édouard Philippe
(currently major of Le Havre), to Armenia, is the latest
occurrence.
No surprises here, as Philippe went for the usual
anti-Azerbaijani tirade, a lot of bold, yet weightless statements.
While the visit itself was not a major event, the tendencies
demonstrated by the visit were very significant with far-reaching
consequences.
Maximize own benefits at the expense of others - a recurring
theme in French foreign policy, and we already talked about it in detail . The destructive
impact of such strategy is affecting the EU's long-term policy in
at least two major directions.
Direction one: the EU's effort to mediate between
Armenia and Azerbaijan
It is no surprise that Baku finds it challenging to accept the
position of France, within the context of Azerbaijan-Armenia
relations. Previously, France initiated several steps, including
trying to push an openly anti-Azerbaijani resolution, which was
consequently shut down. The openly hostile attitude of France led
to a situation where Baku became disenchanted with the prospect of
having France as a mediator and refused to participate in the
France-mediated talks in December 2022.
Fast-forward to the latest Munich Conference, where President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev reconfirmed Azerbaijan's commitment to the
Brussels peace talks format. This gave renewed hope that the
Brussels platform keeps functioning and, possibly, the process
would go smoother. And just a few days after that, Édouard Philippe
made his controversial visit to Armenia. Not so smooth after all,
but Azerbaijan keeps its hopes high.
Direction two: EU's energy security at risk
In mid-2022, the Coordinating Council of Armenian Organizations
of France, in agreement with 61 political leaders in France, issued
a call to the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to
suspend the gas talks with Azerbaijan, under the pretense of the
argument that the deal will make the EU weaker. The rationale for
such claims is a bit dubious, considering the limited availability
of reliable gas exporters, geopolitical problems, and low gas
reserves.
The interesting part here is that France has a lower level of
dependence on gas, compared to other European countries, due to the
wide adoption of nuclear energy. France satisfies around 70 percent
of its energy demands through nuclear energy, thanks to its
strategy known as the Messmer plan, which intended to develop
nuclear energy expertise and secure the energy independence of
France. Due to the lack of impact of the Azerbaijan-EU gas deal on
their country, some French politicians 'went nuclear' on the
European Commission President, who acted in the best interests of
all member states.
France-EU conflict of interests: final
thoughts
France remains an important part of the EU and this is unlikely
to change, therefore Paris will impact the EU policies. However,
there is a certain conflict of interest involved. French
realpolitik leads to the interests of the EU being jeopardized. In
the context of the Brussels Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations
format, the open support demonstrated by French politicians of
different ranks, including the president, creates major challenges
for the EU.
One is undermining the credibility of the EU as a value driven
mediator. Brussels has limited tools at its disposal to mediate,
also it is unable to enforce peace militarily, sanction a country
without solid legal grounds, and openly disregard international
law. When French officials try to sway the opinion of decision
makers in Brussels, they strip the EU of the single mediation tool
available.
Another challenge is the French position regarding the peace
talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and France's 'desire' to
assist Armenia, just for the sake of doing so. After all, if France
really wanted the prosperity of Armenia, it would have created all
the necessary conditions for Armenia to engage with Azerbaijan,
thus fostering peace between the nations. This is not what is
happening - France pursues its own goals, at the expense of the EU,
and the bloc will find it incredibly hard to mediate in existing
circumstances.
Different energy-related priorities push some French politicians
see the talks between Azerbaijan and the EU as an opportunity to
extend their influence with minimal risks for their country.
The support of French politicians to Armenia is a problem for
the EU. The difference of needs for France and the EU is too
significant and apparent in the context of the relationship with
Azerbaijan. So, the EU decision-makers have to ensure that any
policy approach takes into consideration the interests of the Union
as a whole and not the desires of a single country.