(MENAFN- Asia Times) JOHOR BAHRU – Never has the outcome of a Malaysian election arguably been so difficult to predict. That sentiment is one forecasters and analysts might share on the eve of the November 19 general election following a rousing two-week campaign period that has seen the race tighten considerably, putting hitherto perceived frontrunner Barisan Nasional (BN) in uncharted waters.
BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was unmistakably bullish on the coalition's chances for victory when he pushed incumbent caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call snap polls last month despite warnings of heavy monsoon rain and flooding. The United Malays National Organization-led (UMNO) bloc now clearly finds itself on the defensive.
Coalitions led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin and long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim are seen to have gained momentum in recent days, strengthening perceptions that the highly competitive vote will result in a hung parliament with no single coalition expected to win a simple majority in the legislature needed to form a government.
Gone is the era when BN predictably won elections; the looming vote may only decide which coalition will be in the strongest negotiation position to lead the next administration. With a fifth of the 21.1 million electorate still projected as undecided and the crucial ethnic Malay vote split by political fragmentation, the jury is out on who will be Malaysia's next prime minister.
BN's leader is widely seen as its biggest liability. Though Ismail, 62, is the coalition's declared prime ministerial candidate, the bloc has been dogged by speculation that 69-year-old Zahid, who is UMNO's president, could maneuver to take the top job for himself should the party deliver a strong showing. UMNO presidents have consistently held the premiership when BN won past elections.
Corruption charges have thus far prevented Zahid, who polls indicate is one of Malaysia's least popular politicians, from assuming the role of national leader. He is widely perceived to have sidelined Ismail by dropping a raft of the incumbent's allies as election candidates and recently caught flak for promising an ex-foreign minister a top position should BN come to power.
High-profile UMNO candidates like caretaker Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin have seemed preoccupied with convincing voters that Ismail is indeed BN's prime minister candidate. Having been uncharitably assigned to contest an opposition stronghold seat, Khairy has found it necessary to campaign as a reformist who wishes to“cleanse” a party he admits has“gone astray.”
Khairy, widely seen as one of UMNO's most talented young leaders, has spelled out on the hustings a 10-year timeline for his own ambition to lead the party. He has thrown his weight behind Ismail, who he said should be the party's choice for prime minister should BN win at the polls in a veiled swipe at Zahid.
The 46-year-old also asserted there would be no interference in court cases involving BN leaders.
Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob is fighting to hold onto his position. Photo: WikiCommons
Analysts say the open split within UMNO pitting camps loyal to Zahid and Ismail respectively has exposed weaknesses within the ruling party on the campaign trail. Reports suggest UMNO has faced poor turnout at rallies, suffered from a shortage of election campaign workers and witnessed party heavyweights hunkering down in their own constituencies rather than rigorously campaigning for the party nationwide.
UMNO has long prided itself as the guardian of ethnic Malay interests, a status that is being directly challenged by Muhyiddin's right-wing ethno-nationalist Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which has positioned itself as a“clean alternative” for conservative Malay voters and drawn key support from Islamist coalition ally Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and its core conservative Muslim supporters.
Muhyiddin, who served as premier from March 2020 to August 2021, has spent most of his four decades in public life with UMNO. He served as the party's deputy president and deputy prime minister in 2015 under now-jailed former premier Najib Razak but was sacked for taking a critical stance on the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) financial scandal.
Having initially allied with Anwar's center-left Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc, Muhyiddin, 75, broke ranks and led a government formed through“backdoor” parliamentary maneuvers. His 17-month tenure was focused on combating the Covid-19 pandemic with sweeping lockdowns and emergency rule, a record that he stands by and maintains“had a positive impact.”
PN was seen as a longshot before campaigning started but now looks like a contender. Observers note how its well-financed campaign has competently harnessed social media audience micro-targeting to appeal to the economically distraught with messaging that recalls the generous distribution of pandemic cash aid under Muhyiddin's rule.
Serina Rahman, a lecturer at the National University of Singapore's (NUS) Department of Southeast Asian Studies, said“PN may eat away at BN's traditional Malay base because Muhyiddin is seen as being against corruption for his public attacks on Najib and 1MDB, and a safely religious option who is not as extreme as PAS but is able to work with them.”
Elsewhere in the opposition camp, PH leader Anwar finds himself in a make-or-break struggle to realize a multi-decade ambition to lead Malaysia. The 75-year-old“reformasi” icon has said this election will be his last. Observers have noted the thunderous reception his multiracial coalition has garnered at nationwide rallies and a sense of confidence by party leaders.
Analysts say an upset win for PH cannot be ruled out. The coalition, then headed by former premier Mahathir Mohamad, made history when it toppled BN in the May 2018 general election. Hope (harapan in Malay) then gave way to defeatism when the coalition imploded in February 2020 due to internal sabotage and contradictions, giving rise to political apathy among its base.
In his quest to deny BN another election victory, Anwar – reputed for his oratory skills on the stump – is betting that hope springs eternal. Forecasts from pollsters and analysts generally show PH as the best-placed coalition to win a majority of the 222 parliamentary seats up for grabs. Even so, without a simple majority of 112 seats, PH could again find itself on opposition benches.
Anwar Ibrahim has said this will be his last election. Photo: AFP / Mohd Rasfan
“PH can't form the federal government without solid support from Sabah and Sarawak. In a close call, especially with PN potentially brokering a deal with BN, the East Malaysian parties will be spoilt for options,” notes Hafidzi Razali, a senior analyst at the BowerGroupAsia consultancy in reference to Malaysia's Borneo states, which have traditionally been more amenable to BN rule.
Sabah and Sarawak, Malaysia's two largest states by area, account for 56 seats in parliament, or 25% of the total, effectively making them kingmakers in a hung parliament scenario. Anwar's coalition draws strong support from urban-based voters and ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities, but the 144 ethnic Malay-dominated semi-rural and rural constituencies are what counts.
Gerrymandering has given rural Malay seats, traditionally dominated by BN, outsized influence to decide the election outcome. PH, which has centered its campaign in the heartland state of Perak, must capture a large enough share of the Malay vote to have a shot at power. Due to political fragmentation, Anwar's camp may benefit from a split conservative vote.
“If a significant number of ethnic Malay voters switch support from BN to PN it may benefit PH the most,” said Peter Mumford, a Southeast Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy.“If the ethnic-Malay majority vote splits heavily between BN and PN, PH will have a strong chance to slip through the middle and take the most seats.”
Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Malaysia Asia Research Institute, believes a“PN surge is definitely playing out across different constituencies. Whether or not this benefits PH depends on the seat. We see some contests where a PN victory takes away from UMNO and some places where it takes away from PH.
“In some cases, a split Malay vote takes away from them (PH) and makes it easier for BN to win or even puts PN in the running. How it plays out still depends on the size of the split Malay vote,” the academic told Asia Times. Of all the coalitions contesting, Welsh believes PN“has had the most well-organized strategic campaign” and has observed support for Muhyiddin's candidacy in particular.
Prior to the dissolution of parliament in late October, PN constituted the largest support bloc propping up Ismail's government with 46 seats versus BN's 42. In the event of a post-election hung parliament, many analysts believe a reconstituted BN-PN government would be the most likely formulation to emerge, with Ismail leading a government that more-or-less resembles its earlier iteration.
In such a scenario, erstwhile foes BN and PN would set aside differences and justify their collaboration in the name of Malay unity and national duty, likely winning support from East Malaysian parties to shore up a governing majority. But while BN has campaigned as the solution to the political instability that has plagued the nation in recent years, some analysts dispute that message.
“I believe a BN-PN government will be inherently unstable, more unstable than a PH government, because there is a split within UMNO, and UMNO has proven in the last four years that it is not willing to take a secondary position,” said Welsh in reference to the strongarm tactics, sabotage and ultimatums that UMNO had deployed against coalition partners under Zahid's watch.
UMNO may lose support among ethnic-Malay voters at the November 19 polls. Photo: AFP
Hafidzi of BowerGroupAsia, meanwhile, said PN will likely cause more-than-expected upsets in Malay-majority areas.“In the instance of PN getting more seats than BN… it's possible that a compromise prime minister might not even be from BN,” adding that this would depend on which Malay coalition ultimately receives backing from East Malaysia's political blocs.
In a Eurasia Group research note reviewed by Asia Times, the consultancy placed 50% odds on BN and its Sabah state affiliate winning the most seats, down significantly from the 70% it predicted at the start of the campaign on November 5. The BN coalition would likely fall short of a parliamentary majority (40% odds) rather than pass the 112-seat threshold (10% odds), according to its forecast.
Mumford, the note's author, observed that PH had gained ground with 40% odds of winning the most seats, up from 30% at the start of the campaign, while PN could prove to be a wildcard with 10% odds of winning the most seats, up from nil previously.“The outlook and final makeup of the governing coalition thus remain fluid,” the veteran analyst said.
“BN winning the most seats – but significantly short of a majority – will likely lead to the same setup as the most recent administration (BN, PN and regional coalitions), while PH has fewer potential partners and therefore needs to win an outright majority, or close to it, to lead the next government,” Mumford wrote.
PH notably held 90 seats prior to parliament's dissolution, making it far and away the largest single bloc. But as was observed during turbulent transitions in February 2020 and August 2021 in the wake of Mahathir's and Muhyiddin's respective resignations, the reformist coalition proved incapable of forming the key alliances needed to clinch a simple majority.
With dozens of marginal seats in play, turnout will be a crucial factor. Six states have experienced significant flooding since the campaign began. It remains to be seen whether poor weather on polling day will dent overall turnout, or whether public unhappiness with BN's decision to call elections eight months earlier than legally required amid flood season will cost the coalition votes.
The inclusion of 6 million new voters after the implementation of an automatic voter registration system and the lowering of the national voting age from 21 to 18 are also wildcard factors. High turnout among first-time voters could swing rural seats for PH, though analysts caution that segments of Malaysian youth lean conservative, making the demographic difficult to assess.
Malaysian voters have three clear coalition choices at the ballot box. Photo: AFP / Mohd Rasfan
The looming election differs from the previous race in 2018 in another significant way: there isn't a clear antagonist to galvanize voters against. Public outrage against the excesses of the 1MDB scandal led to the villainization of former premier Najib, giving PH a winning edge and setting events in motion that would lead to Najib's imprisonment for corruption on August 23 this year.
While broadly unpopular, Najib had garnered an energetic support base before his jailing that UMNO hopes to leverage into victory. Claims that Najib will be freed from prison and pardoned if BN wins the election are“baseless political propaganda,” according to a recent statement from his lawyers, who added that their client wishes to be acquitted through the judicial process.
While the electoral waters may be muddier and the political narratives less clear-cut than reformers versus kleptocrats, Malaysian voters will be casting ballots with the experience of having lived under administrations led by all three major coalitions on the ballot. Whether the vote brings a new era of political stability or ignites more destabilizing power struggles won't be known until after election day.
Follow Nile Bowie on Twitter at @nilebowie