Bull, bear, or donkey?

In September, we a theory of the Fed and suggested that the will soon worry mostly about financial imbalances without much concern for recession risks. We reached that conclusion by simply weighing the reputational pitfalls faced by the economists on the committee, but now we'll add more meat to our argument, using released last week. We've created two charts, beginning with a look at cumulative, inflation-adjusted asset gains during the last seven business cycles:

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