Expats' Iran War Reactions Show How Gulf States Instill Loyalty

These state-building processes thrived under the security umbrella of US and other western military bases across the Middle East. Firmly embedded in the US sphere of influence, Gulf monarchies have benefited from precious diplomatic cover and access to global markets.

Other regional regimes, meanwhile – notably Iran – were excluded. This was more often due to their hostility towards the US than for their brutal repression and disastrous governance at home.

By directing global attention to threats such as Iran, Gulf regimes forged a strong sense of domestic normality.

But in recent years, a less reliable US regional policy has made the security arrangement increasingly uncertain, prompting Gulf regimes to explore alternatives. Without renouncing deeper engagement with the US, they welcomed cooperation with other powers outside the region, such as China, as well as the possibility of closer relations with Israel and even a modus vivendi with Iran.

Despite ongoing rivalries – including within the regional forum, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – regional conflict de-escalation and management appeared to be the preferred means to continue insulating the Gulf normality. Yet the ongoing destruction in Gaza, closer US-Israeli alignment in the latter's pursuit of regional dominance and the ensuing pressure on Iran's network of proxies have undermined this delicate balance.

The attack on Iran exposed foreign residents' role in sustaining the image of“normality.” Until then, expats and influencers embodied this normality by displaying safe, privileged and apolitical lives.

I saw posts attempting to divert attention from the threat of war in the Gulf by people claiming to feel safer under missile attacks in Dubai and Doha than“after 9 pm” in London or Manchester. Other posts preferred the prospect of missile attacks to being “bombed by 50% taxes.“

These sorts of comments tend to mimic narratives pushed by far-right movements in the West around crime, taxation and immigration.

A viral trend concentrated in the UAE but replicated across other Gulf countries featured influencers responding to the question“Aren't you scared?” with imagery of members of the ruling families and messages such as:“No, because I know who protects us.” A much-publicized walk in Dubai Mall by the UAE president followed this paternalistic framing of security.

After the initial shock, many influencers returned to the old form of messaging, not posting about the war and focusing on showing their privileged“everyday” lives.

It's important to remember that Gulf Arab regimes possess robust censorship apparatuses and broad national security and anti-cybercrime laws that penalize content deemed to“cause panic” or“disturb public order.”

Authorities in Saudi Arabia were swift to remind residents that “photography serves the enemy,” banning unofficial sharing of damage caused by the war. The UAE threatened severe sentences for people posting negative messages. There have been reports of people detained for posting the wrong content – more than 300 in Qatar alone.

Heightened security concerns exposed Western expats to coercive practices typically reserved to political dissidents.