ISW: Over Past Six Months, Russian Forces Have Captured Fewer Square Kilometers In Ukraine Than They Have Lost

(MENAFN- UkrinForm) This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to Ukrinform.

The ISW analyzed data suggesting that between December 2025 and May 2026, Russian forces took control of or invaded an area of 40.64 square kilometers. However, during the same period, Russian forces lost 281.1 square kilometers, if we consider only the territory they fully control.

Analysts note that Russian forces have begun actively employing infiltration tactics-sending in sometimes very small groups of a few soldiers into Ukrainian territory, intermingling with Ukrainian positions, yet without actually controlling that territory.

Citing evidence it has gathered independently, the ISW estimates that Russian forces have lost control of approximately 281 square kilometers, partly because ISW analysts have recoded certain areas on their map from“Russian offensive” to“infiltration zones.” Consequently, according to ISW's calculations, the Russians' loss of control over 281 square kilometers does not mean that Ukrainian forces have liberated exactly that amount of territory.

“A comparison of territories captured by Russia in 2025 with the same period last year shows that the pace of territorial gains has slowed significantly, even when accounting for instances of infiltration. From December 2024 to May 2025, Russian troops advanced 515.84 square kilometers, whereas during the same period in 2025–2026, they advanced or infiltrated only 40.64 square kilometers.“Thus, in 2026, Russian forces captured or infiltrated only 7.87% of the territory compared to the area they advanced into in 2025,” the report states.

The slowdown in Russia's territorial gains does not appear to be related to seasonal weather changes, which traditionally hamper offensives, but is likely the result of broader shifts on the battlefield in 2026.

According to ISW estimates, in April 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of controlled territory, but this may have been partly due to annual seasonal fluctuations, particularly the muddy season when snow melts and rains fall.

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“Historically, Russian forces have intensified their offensives in May and June, when the ground dries out-as was the case in 2025. However, Russian gains in May 2026 do not follow this pattern, suggesting that the slowdown in Russia's offensive in 2026 was not related to seasonal weather conditions. The slowdown in Russia's offensive is likely linked to broader changes on the battlefield, including Ukraine's ground counteroffensives, Ukrainian medium-range strikes on targets, the blocking of Russia's access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine in February 2026, and the Kremlin's restriction of access to Telegram,” the report notes.

As reported by Ukrinform, the reduction in U.S. funding will affect approximately half of the projects aimed at holding Russia accountable for war crimes in Ukraine.

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