Shangri-La Dialogue Opens As Asia Seeks Alternatives To US Shield

Jaglul Ahmed, a retired brigadier general and security analyst from Bangladesh, noted that the current global architecture is failing to provide the ironclad reassurance that US allies increasingly demand.

In his view, the strategic fallout from the Middle East will compel both major and minor powers to pivot, pushing the“Indo-Pacific toward a regional approach anchored in strategic autonomy rather than overreliance on a singular superpower.”

This calculus is notably shifting European perspectives as well. According to Ahmed, European delegates at Shangri-La are likely to hedge their bets, viewing China with an eye toward securing maritime commerce given Beijing's significant diplomatic leverage over Tehran.

For secondary powers, the objective is no longer choosing a side, but managing exposure.

Nitin Gokhle, editor of the Indian defense portal Bharatshakti, told Asia Times that this year's iteration will be defined by countries protecting their positions in an increasingly volatile climate.

With top-level ministerial gaps from giants like India and China, Gokhle expects the US to“dominate the public stage,” yet he emphasizes that the critical matchmaking will occur out of camera range.

Close attention will be paid to the bilateral itinerary of high-level officials, including US“figures like Pete Hegseth,” though decoding the quiet signals sent from those private rooms will be complex.

Ironically, the most urgent concern hummed among Southeast Asian diplomats isn't the sheer scale of China's military expansion, but the erratic nature of American foreign policy. Washington routinely brands the Indo-Pacific as its primary theater, yet its actions tell a more fractured story.

The issue is less about the inherent friction between Washington and Beijing and more about the dizzying policy shifts coming from the US, Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, explained to Asia Times.

He pointed to glaring structural contradictions: the US insists the region is its top priority, yet it simultaneously“pulls vital resources from South Korea to stabilize the Middle East and wavers on hardware deliveries to Taiwan.”

Furthermore, while Washington pays lip service to minilateral groupings like the Quad, a looming undercurrent remains: President Donald Trump's historic indifference to traditional multilateral frameworks.

This perceived vacillation is accelerating a quiet revolution in regional arms procurement. Rather than waiting on delayed or politically conditioned American hardware, Southeast Asian nations are aggressively diversifying their arsenals.