Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

Trump 'Doesn't Care' About Rising Oil Costs, But Bond Markets Will Force Iran Deal


(MENAFN- Investor Ideas) Investorideas ( newswir ) a trusted platform for investing ideas including oil stocks issues UK market commentary from deVere Group.

Donald Trump says rising economic costs will not force him into an Iran deal, but Nigel Green, CEO of one of the world's largest independent financial advisory organizations, says triple-digit oil, rising Treasury yields, and mounting pressure on US consumers will ultimately narrow the White House's room for manoeuvre.

Nigel Green of deVere Group

Trump on Wednesday said he did not "care" about mounting economic pressure or political fallout ahead of the 2026 midterms, arguing Americans support the broader objectives of the conflict despite rising energy costs.

His comments come as Brent crude remains volatile amid fears over disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption moves.

Oil prices have repeatedly surged above $100 a barrel during the conflict, while US gasoline prices have climbed sharply since the start of the Iran war earlier this year.

At the same time, Treasury markets are already reflecting growing inflation anxiety.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.67% earlier this month before easing back toward 4.5%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5% as investors reassessed the inflation risks tied to prolonged energy disruption.

The deVere CEO says investors are already beginning to price the wider consequences of sustained energy disruption.

Nigel Green argues inflationary pressure linked to energy costs would become increasingly difficult politically heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

He warns bond markets could become a major constraint if oil prices remain elevated.

Investors are already watching whether rising oil prices begin feeding further into long-dated Treasury yields, which directly influence borrowing costs throughout the economy.

Nigel Green believes sustained disruption would likely push investors toward defensive sectors, commodities and inflation hedges while weakening overall risk appetite.

Iran, he argues, does not need military superiority to continue exerting influence over global markets

Nigel Green says even partial disruption is capable of sustaining inflationary pressure globally.

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