Instability Stares At Tamil Nadu Polity Even If Vijay Cobbles Up A Majority Of 118 Arabian Post

The day witnessed a whirlwind of negotiations, protests, accusations of political betrayal, constitutional arguments and frantic backroom consultations, underlining the extraordinary churn triggered by the fractured verdict of the 2026 Assembly election.

For the first time since the rise of the Dravidian movement in 1967, Tamil Nadu finds itself without a clear winner and without the familiar certainty of either the DMK or the AIADMK occupying Fort St George.

Instead, the centre of gravity has shifted dramatically towards Vijay - a political novice who converted cinematic charisma into a stunning electoral performance, winning 108 seats and shattering the decades-old bipolar structure of Tamil Nadu politics.

But despite emerging as the single largest party, Vijay has been unable to take oath as Chief Minister because Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar has refused to invite the TVK to form the government until it demonstrates majority support through letters from allied legislators. That decision has triggered a fierce constitutional and political confrontation.

The Governor's insistence on written proof of majority has become the central flashpoint of Tamil Nadu politics.

The TVK and its supporters accuse Raj Bhavan of unnecessarily delaying the democratic process and attempting to create space for alternative political combinations. Congress cadres staged protests across Chennai, Madurai, Erode, Tiruvarur and Thanjavur, accusing the Governor of acting beyond constitutional convention.

Outside Lok Bhavan in Chennai, a lone TVK cadre staged a symbolic protest demanding that Vijay be“immediately invited” to form the government and prove his majority later on the floor of the House.

The Congress, which dramatically snapped ties with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam after the election and extended support to Vijay, escalated its attack further. Senior Congress leaders alleged that the DMK was secretly attempting to align with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to prevent Vijay's ascent.

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Virudhunagar MP Manickam Tagore accused the two Dravidian giants of attempting an“overnight power arrangement” merely to keep TVK out of office.

Ironically, it is the Congress' post-poll switch that has caused one of the biggest tremors within Tamil Nadu's opposition ecosystem. Veteran Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar publicly criticised his own party's decision to support Vijay, calling it“dreadful political opportunism” and warning that the move could inadvertently help the BJP expand its footprint in Tamil Nadu.

Yet the Congress leadership appears convinced that backing Vijay is politically safer than aligning with either of the traditional Dravidian parties in a rapidly changing political landscape.

The real breakthrough for TVK came on Friday afternoon. After marathon meetings in Chennai, both the CPI and CPI(M) decided to extend unconditional support to Vijay, significantly strengthening his claim before the Governor.

Senior Left leaders argued that democratic convention required the single largest party to be invited first and allowed to prove its majority on the Assembly floor.

CPI general secretary D. Raja declared that the Governor should not create“constitutional hurdles” and insisted that majority must be tested“inside the Assembly, not in the corridors of Raj Bhavan.” CPI(M) general secretary M. A. Baby went a step further, saying the Left and the VCK would“take all necessary steps” to ensure Vijay forms the government. The Left's decision has effectively isolated both the DMK and AIADMK in the immediate power struggle.

More importantly, it marks a historic ideological crossover in Tamil Nadu politics. Communist parties that once operated within the ideological umbrella of Dravidian politics are now backing a film star leading a largely personality-driven political movement. That itself reflects the depth of voter dissatisfaction with the old order.

For the outgoing Chief Minister M. K. Stalin, the developments are politically humiliating. The DMK, while retaining substantial vote share in its traditional pockets, suffered heavily because of erosion among floating voters and the youth demographic that migrated towards Vijay's TVK.

Data emerging from the election has shown that TVK made deeper inroads into the AIADMK's core vote bank than the DMK's. Yet the psychological impact on the DMK has been immense because the party now risks losing long-standing allies.

The collapse of the Congress-DMK alliance has already spilled into Parliament politics. DMK MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi has formally requested a change in seating arrangements for DMK MPs in the Lok Sabha following the rupture with Congress.

At the grassroots level, tensions are already visible. In Mayiladuthurai, DMK and Congress workers reportedly clashed after Congress cadres celebrated their party's support to Vijay. The DMK's dilemma is stark: support Vijay and accelerate the collapse of Dravidian dominance, or resist him and risk appearing anti-democratic.

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The AIADMK, which secured 47 seats, has remained deliberately ambiguous. Senior leader M. Thambidurai repeatedly hinted that“many discussions” were under way and expressed confidence that Edappadi K. Palaniswami could still“return to power.”

But numerically, the AIADMK currently lacks a viable pathway unless an improbable anti-TVK coalition emerges involving the DMK, BJP and smaller parties. That possibility appears increasingly remote after the BJP publicly announced it would not support any coalition formation in Tamil Nadu.

State BJP chief Nainar Nagendran declared that the party would remain outside all combinations, although BJP insiders maintain that the central leadership continues to monitor developments closely.

All eyes are now on Thol. Thirumavalavan. The VCK's two MLAs could decisively settle the government formation issue. Sources within the party indicate that Thirumavalavan is inclined to follow the Left parties' position, which would comfortably push the TVK-led alliance past the majority mark.

If that happens, pressure on Governor Arlekar will intensify dramatically. Constitutional experts across the spectrum - including former Union Law Minister Ashwani Kumar - have argued that once majority support is demonstrated, the Governor would have little option but to invite Vijay to form the government and seek a floor test. Even Omar Abdullah weighed in, saying there was“no justification” to deny Vijay the opportunity to prove majority support in the Assembly.

What is unfolding in Tamil Nadu is no longer merely a post-election negotiation. It is the collapse of an old political grammar.

For over fifty years, Tamil Nadu politics revolved around the ideological and emotional binaries created by the DMK and AIADMK. Vijay's emergence has disrupted that structure by mobilising politically restless youth, floating voters, sections of women voters and even fragments of traditional AIADMK support.

The irony is striking: a political actor dismissed by many as a cinematic populist may now become the architect of Tamil Nadu's first truly post-Dravidian political transition. But before that happens, one final question remains unanswered.

Will the Governor invite Vijay before the numbers formally cross 118, or will Tamil Nadu witness another day of brinkmanship, bargaining and constitutional confrontation before its newest political star finally walks into Fort St George? (IPA Service)

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